What is the reported civilian-to-combatant death ratio in the 2023-2024 Gaza war?

1. What the peer‑reviewed modeling found — civilians dominate the toll

A June 2024 peer‑reviewed analysis (Frontiers / Lancet correspondence authors) modelled age‑ and sex‑structured mortality and concluded that only 12.7% of deaths in Gaza in 2023 were combatants (95% UI 9.7–15.4%), producing an “index of killing civilians” of 7.01 — i.e., modelled civilian deaths many times combatant deaths ^{[1] [4]}. That study explicitly states the 2023 conflict “stands apart” from earlier hostilities because civilians are estimated as the primary focus of mortality ^[1].

2. Israeli official statements and competing claims — lower civilian share

Israeli military spokespeople publicly described a much lower civilian share at various stages. In December 2023 the IDF spokesperson said the ratio was about two civilians killed for every militant killed; later Israeli leaders at times implied a near 1:1 civilian:combatant split ^{[5] [6]}. Independent critics argue these official tallies rely on IDF definitions of “combatant” and on internal databases that may not capture all fighters or non‑uniform combatants ^{[6] [3]}.

3. NGO and forensic analyses — higher civilian proportions than Israeli claims

Non‑governmental analysts and NGOs applying demographic breakdowns to Gaza Health Ministry lists have estimated far higher civilian shares. For example, Action on Armed Violence estimated at least 74% of reported fatalities were civilians in a dataset of ~40,700 deaths, giving civilian:combatant ratios ranging from 2.8:1 up to 9.6:1 depending on assumptions ^[2]. Journalistic investigations of Israeli intelligence lists have reported that named fighters accounted for roughly 17% of recorded dead in an IDF database — implying an 83% civilian share — though the investigators note limitations and possible gaps in the databases ^{[3] [6]}.

4. Why estimates diverge — methodology, definitions, and missing data

Disagreement stems from (a) differing definitions of “combatant” (militant membership vs. anyone who took part in hostilities); (b) demographic‑based inference methods that classify adult men as potential combatants; (c) incomplete reporting and bodies under rubble; and (d) political incentives of involved parties. The peer‑reviewed model used demographic structure and multiple datasets, while NGOs often analyse ministry lists by age and sex; the IDF uses operational intelligence and distinguished lists of named fighters — each approach introduces biases and uncertainty ^{[1] [7] [2]}.

5. Independent verification and capture–recapture work

A separate capture–recapture study published in The Lancet (Jan 2025) estimated tens of thousands of traumatic injury deaths and concluded Gaza’s toll was substantially undercounted, reinforcing that most direct conflict deaths were among women, children and older people — groups usually counted as civilians — which supports a high civilian proportion in the documented fatalities ^{[8] [9]}. These independent population‑level methods increase confidence that civilian deaths formed a large share, even while precise ratios remain contested ^[8].

6. What this means for the public record and accountability

Because methods and datasets produce different ratios, single headline numbers — whether “7:1” or “1:1” — should be treated as model‑dependent claims rather than settled facts. Peer‑reviewed modelling and multiple independent counts converge on the conclusion that a large majority of reported deaths in Gaza were civilians, but exact civilian:combatant ratios vary by dataset and assumptions ^{[1] [2] [8]}. Journalistic and advocacy reports stress the humanitarian implications; Israeli official figures emphasize operational context and differing definitions ^{[3] [5]}.

7. Limitations and what’s not in current reporting

Available sources do not provide a single, universally accepted civilian:combatant ratio that covers the entire conflict period without caveats; most studies cover specific time windows or rely on particular databases ^{[1] [8]}. Long‑term indirect deaths and disputed counts under rubble complicate any definitive ratio, and many later forensic surveys and classified databases remain partial or contested ^{[10] [3]}.

Bottom line: rigorously estimated, peer‑reviewed modelling found about 12.7% combatants (roughly a 7:1 civilian:combatant ratio) in Gaza 2023, while Israeli official claims and other analyses offer much lower civilian shares; NGO and journalistic investigations generally corroborate a large civilian majority but differ on the exact ratio because of method and data limits ^{[1] [5] [2]}.