What are UN and Palestinian Authority population projections for Gaza 2026–2030?

1. UN/UNFPA projection: “3.1 million by 2030” — long‑term growth assumption

The UNFPA and associated UN reporting that underpin the 2016 Palestine 2030 analysis projected the Gaza Strip’s population rising from about 1.85 million (the report baseline) to roughly 3.1 million by 2030 and 4.7 million by 2050, reflecting high fertility rates and historically strong growth in Gaza ^[1]. That UN-derived projection has been widely cited as the authoritative international forecast for planning: it assumes pre‑war demographic rates (fertility and mortality) and uses cohort‑component methods to model births, deaths and migration over decades ^{[1] [6]}.

2. Palestinian Authority / PCBS: current counts and short‑range projections limited to 2026

The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics and PA briefings in 2025 report a Gaza population sharply reduced by the recent war, with PCBS estimating about 2.1–2.2 million in Gaza by mid‑2025 and noting a roughly 10.6% drop over two years attributed to mass casualties and displacement ^{[2] [3] [4]}. PCBS’s public projection products available in the sources extend detailed locality mid‑year population tables through 2026 ^[5], but the provided PCBS materials do not include a published PA mid‑range projection explicitly for Gaza covering 2026–2030 in the documents supplied here ^{[5] [3]}.

3. Diverging baselines drive divergent 2026–2030 outlooks

The practical gap between the UN’s growth‑based 2030 forecast and the PA’s post‑conflict headcount stems from different baselines and assumptions: UN projections published earlier used pre‑2023 fertility/mortality trends and limited assumed displacement, while PCBS’s recent counts reflect documented mortality, displacement and population loss through 2025 ^{[1] [2] [3]}. Independent reports and planning studies caution that projections for Gaza are highly sensitive to migration, conflict mortality, humanitarian access and fertility changes, producing a wide envelope of possible 2026–2030 outcomes ^[7].

4. Other UN agencies and international sources show inconsistent baselines, underscoring uncertainty

UNRWA and secondary compilers record different current totals—UNRWA cites roughly 2.4 million in Gaza including 1.6 million registered refugees ^[8]—while global aggregators note the lack of reliable real‑time counts amid conflict and displacement ^{[9] [8]}. UNFPA and PCBS demographic indicators (fertility ~4.0 nationally, higher in Gaza, and a historically high growth rate around 2.8%) explain why pre‑conflict projections expected rapid increase, but those indicators also mean that conflict‑driven mortality and displacement can substantially alter short‑term trajectories ^{[6] [10]}.

5. Bottom line and reporting limitations

The clearest, directly sourced answer: the UN (UNFPA/UN reporting) projected Gaza at about 3.1 million by 2030 under pre‑war demographic assumptions ^[1]; the Palestinian Authority’s PCBS reports a Gaza population near 2.1–2.2 million in mid‑2025 and publishes projections through 2026 in locality tables but, in the material supplied, has not released a formal 2026–2030 Gaza projection that reflects the post‑October‑2023 realities ^{[2] [3] [5]}. Projections for 2026–2030 therefore diverge sharply depending on whether one applies the UN’s longer‑term demographic model or relies on the PA’s recent, conflict‑adjusted headcounts; the sources provided also emphasize high uncertainty and wide variance in any short‑term forecasts because of war‑related deaths, displacement and disrupted demographic trends ^{[7] [4]}.