Has trump really dealt with the economy
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Executive summary
Voters increasingly say the economy feels worse under President Trump: his approval on the economy fell to 31% in the Dec. 4–8 AP‑NORC poll and similar surveys show his overall approval near mid‑30s (AP‑NORC, Axios, Forbes) [1] [2] [3]. The White House touts lower mortgage rates and deficit reductions as evidence of progress, while independent fact‑checkers and economists say many presidential claims overreach and consumer pain persists [4] [5] [6].
1. Political reality: numbers show slipping confidence
Multiple polls released in early December show Trump’s economic approval deteriorating: AP‑NORC reports 31% approval on the economy, Axios highlights 68% of voters saying the economy is in poor shape, and Forbes and AP note this is a low point compared with both his earlier terms [1] [2] [3]. These polls also find falling Republican enthusiasm: Marquette and other trackers show intra‑party support slipping, undercutting the administration’s narrative of broad success [3] [2].
2. The White House narrative: “progress” on costs and deficits
The White House frames the record as a turnaround: an administration release credits tariff revenues, spending cuts and growth with reducing the deficit by “trillions” and points to a lower average 30‑year mortgage rate (6.19% in early December) as a tangible win since January [4]. The administration also points to the July “One Big Beautiful Bill” as a catalyst for expected 2026 growth [7] [4].
3. Independent scrutiny: fact‑checkers find selective or inaccurate claims
FactCheck.org and Roll Call say parts of the president’s rhetoric don’t match the record: Trump’s claim that he “inherited the worst inflation” and that it “stopped” on his return is false; historically worse inflation episodes predate Biden, and 12‑month inflation was still running around 3% as of recent reporting [8] [5]. Fact‑checkers also caution that many job‑reshoring and investment announcements remain promises, and tariff‑driven deals have produced mixed, delayed results [8] [5].
4. Everyday experience versus macro indicators
Reporters and polling capture a striking split: consumers report cutting back on holiday and nonessential spending and say groceries and energy feel more expensive, even as some headline indicators show improvement or stabilization [1] [9] [10]. Axios and The Guardian report that consumer confidence is depressed and that affordability is the leading political liability for Republicans [1] [9].
5. Growth, jobs and unemployment: a mixed performance
Reuters summarizes federal data showing growth rebounded after early contractions in 2025 but also that job growth slowed and unemployment rose to its highest level in four years, undercutting claims of unambiguous labor‑market strength [6]. That mix helps explain why elites point to investment and mortgage rates while voters feel pocketbook pressure [4] [6].
6. Conservative economists: not as rosy as the White House claim
Conservative economists give a tempered assessment: Politico reports that the president graded his economy “A+++++,” while figures like Douglas Holtz‑Eakin say the proper grade is closer to “a gentleman’s C,” signaling skepticism about long‑term gains and affordability effects [11]. Brookings notes administration policy emphasizes economic “discipline” in its National Security Strategy but that strategies and outcomes must be judged separately [12].
7. What’s driving the gap between message and perception
Reporting shows the administration is banking on policy levers—tariffs, regulatory rollbacks, the July stimulus bill and lower mortgage and energy prices—to produce a visible payoff in early 2026 [7] [4]. Critics and fact‑checkers warn much of that payoff is prospective or contingent; they say many touted wins are either overstated, delayed, or unevenly distributed across the economy [8] [5].
8. Bottom line: Has Trump “dealt” with the economy?
Available sources show the administration has enacted policies intended to lower costs and spur investment and point to some measurable improvements (mortgage rates, some rebound in growth), but independent polling and fact‑checks document a credibility gap: public approval on the economy is at a new low, many claims are disputed by fact‑checkers, and consumers report persistent affordability pain [4] [1] [8]. The verdict in public and expert forums is mixed — measurable policy moves exist, but they have not yet translated into broad public confidence or unambiguous economic gains in 2025 [1] [6] [5].
Limitations: This account draws only on the supplied reporting and polls; available sources do not mention longer‑term metrics beyond 2025 or detailed distributional effects by income group not covered in these pieces [1] [2].