Have trumps ratings dropped?

1. What the headline numbers say: a small downward drift, not a collapse

Daily averages and major trackers show Trump running below 50 percent and net approval in negative territory: Nate Silver’s average moved from about -12.0 to -12.9 in mid‑January to early February 2026, and some tracker snapshots place his net approval near -14 to -15 ^{[1] [5] [6]}. Individual national polls cluster in the low‑to‑mid 40s for approval — Ballotpedia reported a 42 percent approval at the end of January (its third consecutive month at that level) and RealClear/aggregates have similar mid‑40s figures ^{[7] [8] [9]}. So the data point to a modest dip from earlier peaks in 2025 rather than a precipitous collapse ^[2].

2. Issue-level weakness — immigration stands out

The clearest and most consistent decline is on immigration: Reuters/Ipsos found approval of Trump’s immigration handling down to 39 percent with 53 percent disapproving — a record low for that issue in his second term — and multiple outlets flagged immigration enforcement incidents, including two Minneapolis deaths involving federal agents, as drivers of that erosion ^{[3] [10] [2]}. Harvard CAPS/Harris likewise showed job approval slipping to 45 percent in January with across‑the‑board declines on the economy, immigration and foreign policy ^[2].

3. Base resilience and partisan splits complicate the narrative

While overall approval has softened, Republican loyalty remains unusually durable: Quinnipiac tracking recorded Republican net approval falling from an extremely high +90 to about +76 (self‑identified GOP voters still overwhelmingly approve), and Fox commentary pointed to extremely high retention among 2024 Trump voters — a phenomenon that mutes political consequences even when overall approval is underwater ^{[4] [11]}. That partisan polarization means a national dip can translate into modest electoral risk (e.g., turnout, candidate recruitment) without necessarily imperiling core coalition support ^[4].

4. Poll variance and timing matter — “have the ratings dropped?” depends on the counterfactual

Different pollsters show different snapshots: some polls (e.g., Morning Consult, Emerson) show low‑to‑mid‑40s approval and small week‑to‑week moves, while Pew/ARG reported much larger unfavorable readings in some surveys, and some single pollsters briefly showed Trump back at or near 50 percent in specific samples ^{[12] [13] [5]}. Aggregators smooth that volatility and indicate a modest downward trend compared with early 2025, but instantaneous claims of a big one‑week plunge are often artifacts of which poll is cited and when it was fielded ^{[1] [8]}.

5. Causes cited in reporting — events, policy, and media narratives

Journalists and pollsters link the recent softening to high‑profile immigration enforcement incidents, ongoing inflation and economic concerns, and waning approval across multiple policy areas in tracking polls ^{[3] [2] [6]}. Opinion pieces emphasize different agendas: some outlets treat low approval as political vulnerability for midterms, while right‑leaning commentary frames persistent base cohesion and “delivery on promises” as the true metric of success ^{[4] [11]}.

6. Bottom line and limits of the record

The best answer from the sources is that Trump’s approval has dropped modestly from some 2025 highs and sits in the low‑to‑mid 40s with net approval negative in many trackers — with the steepest declines on immigration — but the size and significance of that drop depend on which polls and time windows are compared and on how partisan loyalty is weighed ^{[1] [7] [3] [2]}. This reporting does not prove long‑term trajectory; further polling after the current series of events would be required to declare a durable shift ^{[1] [8]}.