Fact check: Red cities with high crime

1. Summary of the results

The analyses reveal a complex picture that challenges the simple narrative of "red cities with high crime." While certain cities do have elevated crime rates, the data shows significant nuances:

Cities with High Crime Rates: Multiple sources confirm that cities like Memphis, Detroit, Baltimore, Oakland, and St. Louis consistently rank among the most dangerous places in America ^{[1] [2]}. FBI crime statistics for 2024 show these cities having some of the highest total crime rates, violent crime rates, and property crime rates in the country ^[2].

Recent Crime Trends: However, the most current data from 2025 shows a decrease in crime rates across various categories, including violent and property offenses, with some exceptions like domestic violence and motor vehicle theft ^[3]. Year-end 2024 data also reported decreasing crime rates across most categories, with exceptions such as shoplifting ^[4].

State-Level Analysis: The data reveals that red states actually have higher murder rates than blue states - the red state murder rate was 33% higher than the blue state murder rate in both 2021 and 2022 ^[5]. Eight out of the 10 states with the highest murder rates in 2022 voted for Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020 ^[5].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The original statement omits several crucial pieces of context:

Red State vs. Blue State Crime Reality: The statement ignores that red states consistently have higher murder rates than blue states ^[5]. Even after removing counties with the largest cities from red states, red state murder rates were still 20% higher in 2021 and 16% higher in 2022, indicating that high murder rates in red states are not solely due to blue cities within them ^[5].

Comparative State Data: States like California have lower homicide rates (5.9 per 100,000 people) compared to red states like Alabama (14.9), Arkansas (11.8), and Oklahoma (8.3 per 100,000 people) ^[6].

Cities in Red States with High Crime: The analysis reveals that cities such as Cleveland, Nashville, and Jackson, Mississippi had higher crime rates than Washington D.C., with Jackson having the highest homicide rate per capita ^[7]. At least ten cities in states whose Republican governors are deploying troops to Washington, D.C., had higher rates of violent crime or homicide than D.C. itself ^[7].

Recent Improvements: The statement fails to acknowledge that crime rates have been decreasing across various categories in recent data from 2024 and 2025 ^{[3] [4]}.

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original statement "Red cities with high crime" contains several misleading elements:

Political Framing Bias: The statement implies that cities governed by Democrats ("red cities" likely meaning Democratic-leaning cities) have uniquely high crime problems, while the data shows that red states have consistently higher murder rates than blue states ^[5]. This selective framing benefits political narratives that seek to blame Democratic governance for crime issues.

Cherry-Picking Data: By focusing only on certain cities while ignoring state-level data and recent crime trends, the statement presents an incomplete picture. The reality is that crime has been decreasing in many categories according to the most recent available data ^{[3] [4]}.

Omission of Context: The statement fails to mention that many cities in Republican-governed states have higher crime rates than cities in Democratic states, and that federal action is being taken in cities that may not have the highest crime rates nationally ^[7].

Temporal Bias: The statement doesn't account for recent improvements in crime statistics, potentially relying on outdated information while more current data shows decreasing crime trends ^{[3] [4]}.

This framing particularly benefits political figures and organizations who seek to justify federal interventions or criticize Democratic governance, while potentially misleading the public about the actual distribution and trends of crime across different political jurisdictions.