Which presidents had the highest and lowest average approval ratings in modern polling history?
Executive summary
Modern polling aggregates (post‑World War II through present) show wide variation in average presidential approval; Gallup’s historical tables cite Jimmy Carter averaging about 45.5% — “essentially tied with Harry Truman as the second‑lowest among post‑World War II presidents” — while many contemporary poll aggregates (RealClear, Silver Bulletin, New York Times) allow direct comparisons across presidents [1] [2] [3]. Available sources do not provide a single definitive ranked list in one place, but Gallup’s historical statistics and contemporary poll aggregators are the principal datasets reporters use for such comparisons [1] [3] [2].
1. What “modern polling history” means and why the data differ
“Modern” approval polling typically refers to systematic, repeated question‑based surveys that began with George Gallup’s work (estimates from the late 1930s) and became a continuous instrument of presidential measurement thereafter; Gallup’s presidential approval series is the baseline many analysts use for post‑World War II comparisons [1]. But contemporary outlets (The New York Times, RealClear, FiveThirtyEight/Silver Bulletin, Economist/YouGov, Reuters/Ipsos) produce their own daily or rolling averages that differ by which pollsters they include and how they weight likely/registered/adult samples — so a president’s “average” can vary by source [2] [3] [4] [5].
2. Low averages highlighted in Gallup’s historical tables
Gallup’s historical analysis explicitly notes Jimmy Carter averaged about 45.5% approval and that this tied him with Harry Truman as the second‑lowest among post‑World War II presidents, making Gallup the natural reference when people ask which presidents had the lowest averages in the modern era [1]. Gallup’s historical center compiles decade‑by‑decade polling and provides consistent methodology over many presidencies, which is why journalists and scholars often prefer it for long‑run comparisons [1].
3. High averages and the limits of the available sources
Available sources provided here do not quote a single Gallup number for the all‑time highest average; The New York Times and Silver Bulletin offer rolling averages that allow direct visual comparison of individual presidents’ curves but require extracting or downloading their datasets to compute precise long‑run means [3] [2]. Wikipedia’s page on presidential approval references Gallup and other aggregates but does not supply a definitive ranked table in the excerpts shown here [6]. Therefore, a precise “highest ever” figure is not quoted directly in the current reporting supplied.
4. Why contemporary presidents often dominate media coverage
Recent presidents (Donald Trump, Joe Biden and others) appear frequently in media trackers because outlets maintain live pages with daily averages and issue‑level breakdowns; for example, Silver Bulletin carries an updated presidential approval series that includes all presidents since Truman, and The New York Times supplies downloadable daily averages for the current president that can be compared to past presidencies [2] [3]. That media focus can create the impression modern presidents are uniquely low or high, but that impression depends on the aggregator and timeframe chosen [2] [3].
5. Conflicting perspectives and methodological agendas
Different outlets have implicit agendas in methodology: Silver Bulletin (a direct descendant of FiveThirtyEight) weights polls by pollster reliability and prefers an all‑adult baseline; The New York Times documents methodological differences for users migrating from FiveThirtyEight and emphasizes transparency and downloadable datasets; Gallup emphasizes consistency across decades [2] [3] [1]. These choices affect which presidents appear to have the highest or lowest averages and reveal that “best” or “worst” depends on the methodological lens used [2] [3] [1].
6. How to get a definitive answer from the available data
To produce an authoritative ranked list you must pick a dataset and method: use Gallup’s presidential approval center for a long‑run, single‑pollster series (best for historical comparisons) or download The New York Times/ Silver Bulletin aggregates to compute mean approvals across presidents with your chosen weighting [1] [3] [2]. Journalistic practice is to report both the dataset and the averaging method alongside any headline claim because those choices materially change the outcome [1] [2].
7. Bottom line for readers
Gallup’s historical series is the clearest single source for long‑term comparisons and identifies Jimmy Carter (≈45.5%) and Harry Truman among the lower averages in the post‑WWII era [1]. Contemporary aggregators let you compare living and more recent presidents day‑by‑day but will produce different rankings depending on inclusion and weighting rules, so any claim about the single “highest” or “lowest” approval in modern polling history must cite the specific aggregator and method used [2] [3].
If you want, I can extract and compute ranked averages from one of these datasets (Gallup, New York Times, or Silver Bulletin) and return a clear top/bottom list with precise numbers — tell me which source and whether to weight polls or use a simple mean.