How have recent special elections and vacancies changed the House balance in 2025–2026?
Executive summary
A string of 2025–2026 special elections, resignations and deaths has produced a handful of temporary vacancies and a net House where Republicans maintain a wafer‑thin majority — reported as 218 Republicans to 213 Democrats with four vacancies as of Jan. 6, 2026 [1] [2]. Results of individual special elections have largely preserved the pre‑existing party alignment so far, even as state legislatures’ redistricting maneuvers and dozens of retirements set the stage for potential shifts in the 2026 general election [3] [4] [5].
1. What changed on the floor: the arithmetic and the vacancies
The operational reality of the chamber was altered by several departures: Members resigned or died, producing at least four open seats and reducing the number of seated representatives to 431 as of Jan. 6, 2026 [2] [1]. Bloomberg Government reports Republicans holding 218 seats to Democrats’ 213 while noting four vacancies created by deaths and resignations [1]. Independent trackers such as Cook and The Cook Political Report list the specific vacancies — including CA‑01 (Doug LaMalfa, R), GA‑14 (Marjorie Taylor Greene, R), NJ‑11 (Mikie Sherrill, D) and the earlier TX‑18 special process after Rep. Sylvester Turner’s death — and mark special‑election calendars that could affect the working majority during the 119th Congress [6] [7].
2. Special elections held so far: preservation, not reversal
The special elections conducted in 2025 and into January 2026 largely maintained existing party control in the contested districts rather than delivering dramatic swings. Texas’s 18th district — vacated by the late Sylvester Turner — advanced to a runoff in which Christian Menefee (D) defeated Amanda Edwards (D), keeping that seat Democratic [3] [8]. Ballotpedia and other lists show a half‑dozen special elections in 2025 that produced no immediate, sustained reversal of the overall party split in the House [9] [3]. That pattern explains why the GOP retained a slim majority even as vacancies persisted [1].
3. Redistricting and state maneuvers: where the longer shifts come from
Beyond individual special elections, state actions have reconfigured the battlefield: Missouri’s special session redrew the 5th district into a solid Republican seat enabling a GOP pickup, and North Carolina Republican leaders similarly pursued redrawing to make at least one district more Republican‑leaning — moves that change the partisan baseline heading into 2026 [4]. These state maps, not the discrete special elections, have produced some of the most consequential immediate seat flips and will shape which districts are competitive in the 2026 all‑seat contest [4] [10].
4. Campaign targeting and retirements: pressure points for 2026
Both campaign committees and independent forecasters see a dynamic map: the NRCC and DCCC have published competing target lists — the NRCC identifying roughly two dozen Democratic seats to flip and the DCCC naming its Frontline seats — while dozens of incumbents announced retirements, creating open, more vulnerable districts [11] [5]. Ballotpedia and Cook trackers note many incumbents and open seats, and analysts emphasize that Democrats must net three seats to capture a majority in 2026, while Republicans can lose only two to hold on — a narrow path magnified by current vacancies and statewide redistricting [5] [6].
5. What to watch and the partisan incentives behind the moves
The immediate net effect of 2025–early‑2026 special elections and vacancies has been to remove a few members temporarily and to preserve the party split rather than flip control; the decisive levers now are state redistricting, open‑seat contests in 2026, and targeted campaigns from both parties [1] [4] [11]. Observers should also note incentives: Republican state legislatures pursued maps that produce short‑term gains (e.g., Missouri) and both national committees are shaping a 2026 playbook — actions that reveal strategic, partisan motives beyond the neutral mechanics of filling vacancies [4] [11].
6. Forecasts and uncertainty heading into November 2026
Early forecasting studies predict potential losses for the GOP in the 2026 midterms, with some models projecting a significant Democratic pickup, but forecasts vary and come with wide error bands — meaning the current narrow Republican majority can still be overturned or preserved depending on special‑election outcomes, redistricting effects and the national environment [12] [5]. In short, special elections to date have not produced a control‑changing wave; the balance has been most affected by state map changes and the accumulation of retirements and vacancies that make November 2026 the true pivot point [4] [5].