Which House special elections are scheduled or likely between December 2025 and March 2026 that could flip control?

1. What the schedules actually show — a scattered calendar

Multiple compilations indicate special elections continue through late 2025 and into 2026 rather than clustering on a single date: Ballotpedia notes upcoming specials including Tennessee’s 7th on December 2, 2025 ^[1], Cook Political’s tracker lists TN‑07 (special Dec. 2) and an NJ‑11 special set for April 16, 2026 (with a February primary) ^[2], while Wikipedia’s 2026 House page states “special elections may also be held on various dates throughout 2026” ^[3]. These sources together portray a rolling set of contests rather than a single wave between December and March.

2. Which seats are explicitly scheduled in this window

From the provided reporting, Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District has a confirmed special election date of December 2, 2025 ^{[1] [3]}. Cook Political confirms TN‑07’s Dec. 2 date and separately highlights a planned NJ‑11 special on April 16, 2026 — which lies outside the December–March window the user asked about — leaving fewer clearly calendared contests in the Dec 2025–Mar 2026 span in the supplied sources ^[2].

3. Contests that could be “likely” but aren’t firmly scheduled in sources

Sources emphasize that additional special elections “may” occur throughout 2026 and that vacancies and redistricting will drive timing ^[3]. Ballotpedia’s running list of 2025–2026 specials shows several held and “four upcoming” as of November 2025 but does not enumerate each date within the December–March window in the excerpts provided ^[1]. Therefore, while more elections are possible in that period, the exact contests and dates are not fully specified in the available reporting ^{[1] [3]}.

4. Which seats could flip control — narrow margins matter

Multiple sources underline that the House remains closely divided and that a handful of special or open seats could change the majority arithmetic. Ballotpedia and Cook Political both note competitive dynamics and list specific vacanciessuch as NJ‑11 (a Democratic vacancy) and TN‑07 (a Republican vacancy), with Cook flagging NJ‑11’s April special and TN‑07’s December date ^{[2] [1]}. However, none of the supplied excerpts directly claim any particular December–March special will flip control; they instead frame these as potentially consequential if the House majority is slim ^[2].

5. Redistricting, timing and political strategy affect flip chances

Wikipedia and Ballotpedia material emphasize that redistricting and state-level timing decisions influence which seats are at play in any given calendar and therefore the odds of a flip ^{[3] [1]}. Parties and state officials may schedule specials strategically or leave vacancies until general elections; Cook’s open-seat tracker also highlights a set of potentially competitive open seats that could become battlegrounds depending on resignations and calendar choices ^{[2] [3]}.

6. What’s missing or uncertain in current reporting

Available sources do not provide a comprehensive, dated roster of every U.S. House special election between December 2025 and March 2026, nor do they explicitly identify a specific contest in that window as a near-certain “flip” ^{[1] [3]}. The Cook tracker and Ballotpedia list vacancies and some scheduled dates but leave open the possibility of additional specials (“may also be held”) and do not attach hard probabilities to flips in the December–March slice ^{[2] [3]}.

7. Bottom line for readers who want to watch control risks

Monitor Tennessee’s Dec. 2, 2025 special (TN‑07) and any state announcements about vacancies and special-election calendars; consult Cook Political and Ballotpedia for rolling updates because the handful of vacancies and redistricting changes are the mechanisms most likely to produce additional specials that could matter for a narrow majority ^{[1] [2] [3]}. Sources agree the environment is fluid; no single December–March special is identified in the supplied reporting as a decisive flip opportunity at this time ^{[1] [2] [3]}.