How did 2024 turnout compare to 2020 and midterm elections historically in the U.S.?

1. How big was the turnout gap: 2024 vs. 2020

Main federal surveys and compilations show 2020 remains the record high for modern presidential turnout and 2024 slightly below it: the Census CPS reports 65.3% of the voting‑age population voted in 2024 (73.6% registered), while Pew documents 2020 at about 66% and 2024 at roughly 64% (Pew frames both as the highest contests in a century, with 2024 tied with 1960) and Ballotpedia places overall eligible‑voter turnout in 2024 near 63.7% versus 66.6% in 2020 ^{[1] [2] [3]}. Different methods (voting‑age population vs. voting‑eligible population vs. validated‑voter surveys) explain small numeric differences across sources; all agree 2024 was very high historically but slightly below 2020 ^{[1] [2] [3]}.

2. How 2024 compares to midterms and other non‑presidential years

By long‑run standards, 2024 outpaced every midterm and most non‑presidential years since at least 2004: Ballotpedia notes 2024 turnout was higher than every other election year since 2004 and NACo described 2024 as the second‑highest turnout (about 63.3% in its preliminary figure) since 1960 ^{[3] [8]}. Analysts emphasize that off‑year contests typically see much lower participation, so the 2024 presidential contest resembled the exceptional spike of 2020 rather than a standard midterm turnout pattern ^{[3] [8]}.

3. Who moved — turnout within demographic groups

Available reporting shows turnout fell from 2020 across many demographic groups in 2024, with uneven declines: the Census and USAFacts note drops by race and age (for example, youth turnout was relatively weak in some estimates), while Pew and Catalist document that Republican‑leaning eligible voters turned out at higher rates than Democratic‑leaning voters in 2024 and that some groups who backed Biden in 2020 shifted toward Trump in 2024 ^{[1] [4] [6] [7]}. AP and others argue that these differential turnout patterns — plus party switching among certain subgroups — were decisive in the outcome ^{[5] [7]}.

4. Geographic variation: states and local highs/lows

State‑level turnout varied widely. Ballotpedia and USAFacts list Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire and Colorado among the highest turnout states in 2024 (Minnesota ~76%, Wisconsin ~76%), while states such as Arkansas, Hawaii and Oklahoma recorded much lower rates (~50–54%) ^{[3] [9] [4]}. Washington, D.C., also posted exceptionally high turnout relative to states (about 79.5% in one compilation) ^[4]. These state gaps shaped the Electoral College and congressional results because turnout swings concentrated in battlegrounds matter more than national averages ^{[3] [4]}.

5. Partisan implications and contested expectations

Conventional political wisdom held that higher turnout benefits Democrats; multiple outlets reported that 2024 contradicted that assumption because the “sky‑high” turnout helped Republicans in crucial places and Trump won both the Electoral College and the popular vote margin reported by AP at the time ^[5]. Pew and Catalist present a more granular view: both turnout differentials (Republican‑leaning eligible voters turning out more) and some voters switching from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024 combined to change the electoral map ^{[6] [7]}.

6. Limitations, methods and competing measures

Be cautious: sources use different denominators (voting‑age population, voting‑eligible population, validated‑voter samples, or registered voters), producing turnout estimates that differ by a few points — Census CPS shows 65.3% voted, Ballotpedia ~63.7%, Pew ~64%, NACo a preliminary 63.3% — but all concur that 2024 was among the highest turnouts since 1960 and slightly under 2020 ^{[1] [3] [2] [8]}. Where sources disagree about cause and consequence — for example, whether turnout itself or partisan shifts mattered more — the reporting highlights both mechanisms as important ^{[6] [7] [5]}.

7. Bottom line for readers

2024 continued the unusually high‑participation trend inaugurated in 2020: it was near historic highs, exceeded typical midterm levels by a large margin, but fell a bit short of 2020’s peak. The decisive story was not turnout alone but which voters stayed home, which switched sides, and where turnout moved — patterns that favored Republicans in several key locales contrary to longstanding assumptions ^{[1] [2] [5] [6]}.