How have polling trends for the 2026 California governor primary shifted since 2024?
Executive summary
Polling since late 2024 shows the 2026 California governor primary moving from a largely unsettled field with high undecided shares to clearer frontrunners while remaining volatile: Katie Porter led some 2024–early 2025 tests (14% in a Sept. 2024 USC poll) but by April–August 2025 Emerson polling she rose to roughly 18% while Republican Steve Hilton appeared and reached about 12% amid a 38% undecided plurality [1] [2]. Other polls since mid‑2025 show competing narratives — some with Republicans ahead in individual surveys and others with Democrats dominant — underscoring wide variation across pollsters and timing [3] [4] [5].
1. From wide open to named frontrunners — but still unsettled
In fall 2024 many likely voters reported low name recognition and high indecision; USC’s September 2024 poll placed Katie Porter atop a crowded pack at 14% while most voters were uncommitted, reflecting a field that was “wide open” [1]. By spring and summer 2025 several polls began to produce clearer first‑place figures: Emerson’s April–August 2025 polling showed Porter rising to about 18% and new entrants such as Steve Hilton quickly registering double digits, but Emerson still found a plurality (38%) undecided, signaling an electorate aware of candidates but not yet locked in [2].
2. Competing narratives: Democrats can still dominate, but Republican surges appear in some polls
University of California‑Irvine polling in mid‑2025 showed Vice President Kamala Harris (then considering a run) with a double‑digit lead over hypothetical fields — evidence that, with higher‑profile Democrats in play, Democratic dominance remains plausible [5]. At the same time, other surveys and coverage in 2025 reported Republicans leading in certain primary tests and some individual polls that gave conservatives advantages — a pattern that led analysts to warn Democrats about vote‑splitting and the risk of two Republicans advancing in California’s top‑two primary [4] [3].
3. Undecideds and crowded fields amplify small shifts into big headline changes
Multiple outlets note a crowded Democratic bench and a still‑sizable undecided bloc; Newsweek and Emerson reporting emphasize how a field with many low‑single‑digit Democratic candidates allows even modest Republican consolidation to produce headlines about “Republican leads” in specific polls [4] [2]. This dynamic explains why polls taken weeks apart can appear to contradict one another: when many candidates sit near the margins, sampling noise and question wording produce headline swings even if broad partisan leanings remain stable [4] [2].
4. Methodology and timing drive divergence between poll results
Sources reveal differences in sample sizes, likely‑voter screens, and whether polls test named high‑profile figures (like Harris) or a scattershot list of rumored candidates; UC‑Irvine’s mid‑2025 surveys used large samples (2,000+ adults) and found Harris with 24% in hypothetical testing, while Emerson’s surveys tracked changes before and after candidate announcements and found Porter’s share rising as Harris’s candidacy status shifted [5] [2]. These methodological choices — who’s tested and when — materially affect reported standings [5] [2].
5. What the polling trend implies for June 2026 primary dynamics
Analysts cited by Newsweek and other outlets conclude that the primary remains highly contestable: if Democratic support fragments, two Republicans could plausibly finish in the top two; if a high‑profile Democrat (Harris or another) consolidates, the Democratic advantage would persist [4] [5]. Several outlets classify the eventual general election environment as still favoring Democrats overall, but warn the primary’s top‑two mechanics create strategic vulnerabilities for Democrats if their vote disperses [4].
6. Limits of the available reporting and what’s not found
Available sources detail multiple polls through mid/late 2025 and show varying leaders and undecided rates, but they do not provide a single, continuous polling time series that reconciles every methodological difference; aggregated averages or modeled trendlines (e.g., FiveThirtyEight‑style composites) for the full period are not documented in the provided material (not found in current reporting). Likewise, detailed cross‑tab demographics beyond a few Emerson subgroup notes are sparsely reported in these items (not found in current reporting) [2] [5].
7. Bottom line for readers: treat single polls as snapshots, not destinies
Reporting across Emerson, UC‑Irvine, USC and news outlets shows the 2026 California primary has moved from broad uncertainty toward named leaders (Porter, Hilton, Bianco and others), but poll‑to‑poll swings reflect entry and exit of candidates, undecided majorities, and different polling methods; the prize remains fluid and storylines — “Democratic consolidation” vs. “Republican surge” — will continue to alternate depending on who pollsters test and when [1] [2] [4] [5].
Sources cited: USC poll (Sept. 2024) on Porter [1]; Emerson College polls and releases (Apr–Aug 2025) on Porter and Hilton and undecideds [2]; UC‑Irvine/Truedot mid‑2025 polling on Harris [5]; Newsweek and Newsweek analysis referencing divergent poll results and risks to Democrats [4] [3].