How do historians rank Donald Trump compared with other presidents?
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Executive summary
Historians’ formal rankings and public polls paint different pictures: a 2024 survey used in reporting placed Donald Trump at or near the bottom of expert historical rankings (Trump ranked last at #44 in the Presidential Greatness Project survey cited in news coverage) while public polling shows more mixed, partisan views with Gallup and other pollsters reporting mid‑range favorability for living presidents (Gallup and related coverage) [1] [2]. Scholars warn that final judgments depend on long‑term outcomes and evolving standards; Durham University researchers say Trump’s first term is hard to classify as “great” and future years will determine historians’ verdicts [3].
1. Historians’ expert surveys: Trump near the bottom
Multiple accounts cite the Presidential Greatness Project and similar historian surveys that placed Trump—and in some reporting the 2024 result shows him last among modern presidents included in that question—at or near the bottom of expert rankings, a result noted by outlets including AEI and Forbes referencing the Project’s 2024 findings and the 154 historians who were surveyed [1] [2]. These expert polls reflect historians’ assessments of presidential “greatness” using criteria such as leadership, crisis management, and impact; the Project’s 2024 tally is the strongest single piece of evidence in the current reporting that Trump fares poorly with professional historians [1].
2. Public polls tell a different, more partisan story
Public opinion surveys produce a divergent picture: Gallup and other public polling show Trump’s standing among living presidents is mixed and highly polarized, with Gallup findings cited as showing Trump ranked higher than some presidents on certain favorable/above‑average metrics in a December 2024 Gallup snapshot [1] [2]. Media coverage notes that partisan lenses shape those public results strongly — Republicans and Democrats often disagree sharply on whether a presidency is “outstanding” or “poor,” which complicates using public polls as historical judgment [1].
3. Academic caution: “greatness” is hard to define and fluid over time
Academic analysis emphasizes the methodological limits of early rankings. Durham University’s David Andersen argues that “greatness” is difficult to define and that Trump’s domestic and global decisions during his prior term produced polarized outcomes that don’t yet translate into an obvious long‑term legacy; Andersen says Trump’s first term lacked unifying, enduring achievements that would secure a consensus “great” ranking [3]. The piece warns that future crises, policy durability, and historians’ priorities will shape any final placement [3].
4. Who’s doing the ranking matters — experts vs. activists vs. bloggers
Beyond formal historian surveys and national polls, outlets and advocacy sites produce their own lists that reflect distinct agendas. The Northwest Progressive Institute’s 2025 ranking is an explicitly normative, political assessment that places Trump at the bottom given the author’s interpretive frame about threats to democracy [4]. These partisan or advocacy lists are valuable for understanding political debate but are not the same as peer‑reviewed scholarly consensus or long‑term historiography [4].
5. Short‑term indicators: approval ratings and current politics influence perception
Contemporary approval polling — Gallup, Reuters/Ipsos, Nate Silver’s aggregates and other outlets — tracks public reaction to ongoing governance and events; Reuters reported Trump’s approval dipping in late 2025 amid concerns over the cost of living and controversies, underscoring that present behavior and policy performance continue to shape how both public and experts will remember a presidency [5] [6] [7]. Poll shifts among demographics (e.g., millennials) are noted in media analysis as potentially relevant for future reputational change [8].
6. Competing viewpoints and obvious limitations
Sources disagree on weight and interpretation: historian surveys (Presidential Greatness Project) present a clear expert verdict placing Trump low [1], while Gallup and other public polls show more ambivalent or mixed public views that can place him above some modern presidents on favorability [1] [2]. Available sources do not mention a definitive, widely‑accepted long‑term historical ranking that settles Trump’s place permanently; multiple outlets explicitly say future years will determine whether he is judged “great” or “poor” [3] [1].
7. Bottom line for readers
If you ask historians now, many expert surveys cited in recent reporting put Trump near the bottom of modern presidents; if you ask the public, results are split and deeply partisan [1] [2]. Scholars caution that these early rankings reflect contemporary polarization and that durable historical judgment will hinge on long‑term outcomes, the persistence of policies, and evolving professional criteria — factors that current sources say remain unresolved [3].