How do historians rank U.S. presidents and where does Donald Trump fall in recent rankings?
Executive summary
Historians generally rank presidents through recurring expert surveys that score leadership, accomplishments and crisis management; long-running projects include the Presidential Greatness Project and Siena’s US Presidents Study [1] [2]. Recent expert surveys and media summaries place Donald Trump near the bottom of academic rankings — for example, the Presidential Greatness Project’s 2024 expert survey ranked him last among 44 presidents [3] [4] — while public-opinion measures show more mixed views of his legacy and approval [3] [5].
1. How historians build presidential rankings — systematic expert surveys
Modern scholarly rankings are produced by structured surveys of historians, political scientists and presidential scholars who score presidents on multiple attributes (leadership, accomplishments, crisis management, political skill, appointments, character) and then produce aggregate lists; projects that follow this model include the Siena Research Institute study and the Presidential Greatness Project [2] [1]. These expert surveys intentionally separate “historical” judgment from immediate journalism, and organizers often wait years before including a sitting or recently departed president because proximity skews interpretation [1].
2. Major recurring polls and what they emphasize
Different efforts emphasize different questions: Siena’s US Presidents Study surveys experts across 20 categories to generate a multi‑dimensional ranking [2], while the Presidential Greatness Project collects historians’ and experts’ overall greatness rankings and publishes periodic updates cited widely in public debate [1]. Media outlets typically summarize these expert lists; C-SPAN and similar multi-wave polls are also influential in scholarly discussions of presidential standing [6] [1].
3. Where Donald Trump falls in recent expert rankings
Recent expert surveys cited in 2024–25 place Trump toward the bottom of academic rankings. The Presidential Greatness Project’s 2024 findings — referenced by multiple outlets and analysts — listed Trump at or near last among the surveyed presidents (rank #44 in the 44‑president sample) according to 154 historians and experts [3] [4]. Academic commentary summarized by Durham University notes that “some presidential rankings place him as the worst president in history,” reflecting that several scholarly respondents evaluate his first term very unfavorably [7].
4. Public opinion vs. scholarly judgment — a divided picture
Public polls diverge from historians. Gallup and other national surveys show more mixed, and in some periods more favorable, public views of Trump’s standing compared with expert judgments. For example, Gallup and Economist/YouGov data discussed by commentators show that substantial shares of the public rate Trump as above average on some measures; media summaries note that public assessments can improve once presidents leave office [3] [5]. In short, historians’ cross‑temporal scoring emphasizes long‑term effects and expertise, while public polling reflects partisan, contemporary reactions [3] [5].
5. Why expert rankings place Trump low — themes from the sources
Sources point to the relative lack of transformative policy achievements, controversies, institutional strains, and crisis management judgments as reasons some scholars rank Trump low or worst; Durham University and journalistic summaries highlight that his first term “is difficult to define as ‘great’” and that several surveys placed him near the bottom [7] [3]. The Presidential Greatness Project and related commentary underscore expert concerns about Trump’s effects on norms and institutions as part of their assessments [1] [3].
6. Caveats, recent developments and methodological limits
Experts and organizers acknowledge limits: historians prefer distance because the long‑term consequences of a presidency can take decades to appear; the Presidential Greatness Project planned to release a 2025 survey but has hesitated about including current or recently serving presidents because proximity can turn historical analysis into punditry [1] [6]. Available sources do not mention a single, definitive consensus ranking that will remain fixed; different expert polls yield variation and partisan public polls produce contrasting results [1] [2].
7. Bottom line for readers: interpretation and what to watch next
If you weigh scholarly surveys, recent expert work cited in 2024–25 placed Trump near the bottom of historical rankings [3] [4]. If you weigh contemporary public opinion, polls show stronger, more divided approval levels that complicate a settled legacy assessment [5] [8]. Watch for the next rounds of systematic expert surveys (Presidential Greatness Project, Siena, C‑SPAN iterations) once historians feel enough distance to reassess the second Trump presidency; those future surveys will be decisive for how historians finally slot him in the pantheon [1] [2].