How many Americans believe there was election fraud in 2020
Executive summary
Polls put the share of Americans who believe the 2020 election involved meaningful fraud in the roughly one-third range, though exact estimates vary by question wording and timing — examples include about 30% in Monmouth/UMass polling and roughly 39% in a Reuters/Ipsos figure cited by election-focused compendia [1] [2]. That aggregate hides a deep partisan split: majorities of Republicans have repeatedly said the 2020 result was illegitimate or “stolen,” while Democrats largely reject that view [3] [4].
1. How many Americans — headline numbers and the survey spread
National surveys cluster around the low-to-mid 30s when asking whether Biden’s 2020 win was legitimate or “rigged,” with one Monmouth/UMass poll finding 30% believed Biden won because of fraud and other reporting noting about one-third of adults view his win as illegitimate [1] [4]; an often-cited Reuters/Ipsos figure reported on some sites shows 39% saying the election was “rigged” [2]. Different polls ask different questions (e.g., “rigged,” “illegitimate,” or “stolen”), and phrasing plus timing produces the range of estimates seen in public reporting [5].
2. The partisan fault line — Republican majorities vs. Democratic rejection
Across multiple reputable surveys, a clear partisan divide emerges: large majorities of Republicans or Republican-leaning respondents have said Biden’s win was not legitimate — for example, CNN/SSRS and other polls have shown roughly 60–70% of Republicans holding that view at various points, and Reuters/Ipsos reporting likewise documents two-thirds or more among Republicans endorsing fraud claims in some samples [3] [2] [1]. By contrast, most Democrats and a plurality of independents reject the fraud narrative, which is why overall national percentages remain well below 50% even when Republican belief is high [4] [6].
3. Why the numbers matter — belief vs. evidence
Scholars and journalists emphasize a distinction between popular belief and empirical proof: major academic reviews and reporting find no evidence of widespread fraud that could have flipped the 2020 outcome, and statistical and legal challenges failed to substantiate large-scale fraud claims [7] [8]. Conservative trackers like the Heritage Foundation maintain databases of proven fraud cases, but their documented instances are vanishingly small relative to the hundreds of millions of votes cast and have not shown outcomes were altered at the presidential level [9] [8].
4. How belief formed and why it persisted
Research finds that elite rhetoric, social-media amplification, and partisan motivated reasoning sharply increased belief in fraud among Trump supporters; surveys conducted during and after the count show that false beliefs were widespread among Trump voters and that many adherents continued to trust the fraud narrative despite lack of corroborating evidence [10] [11] [12]. Polls also indicate some Republicans say their belief rests on “suspicion” rather than evidence, suggesting perceptions have been sustained by identity and partisan cues more than verifiable facts [3].
5. Caveats, trends and the limits of current reporting
Estimates change with question wording, sample composition and timing — some polls show belief declining among Republicans over multiple years even as a majority still doubts legitimacy in specific samples, and organizational trackers report a sizable share of Americans strongly disagree with the “rigged” claim [3] [6]. Reporting and academic work converge on two points present in the sources: a substantial minority of Americans — roughly one-third nationally — believe there was meaningful 2020 fraud, and that belief is concentrated overwhelmingly among Republicans, even though comprehensive analyses and legal reviews find no evidence that widespread fraud occurred [2] [1] [7] [8].