How many deportations from 2025 to 2026
Executive summary
Official tallies for “how many deportations from 2025 to 2026” diverge sharply: Department of Homeland Security press releases claim between roughly 527,000 and 675,000 removals and say millions more self‑deported [1] [2], while independent trackers and agency data compiled by TRAC and news outlets put the total removals in the roughly 290,000–605,000 range depending on definitions and time windows [3] [4] [5]. The correct headline is a range, not a single number, because agencies count different activities (ICE removals, CBP border expulsions, voluntary departures and “self‑deportations”) and some public statements aggregate distinct categories in ways that obscure standard removal metrics [6] [7].
1. Official DHS tallies: headline numbers and voluntary departures
DHS communications during late 2025 and January 2026 repeatedly presented very large figures — for example, a December 2025 statement said “more than 605,000 deportations” since January 20, 2025 and claimed 1.9–2.2 million people had voluntarily left the United States in 2025 [4] [2], while an October 2025 DHS release earlier put the removals figure “more than 527,000” and described 1.6 million voluntary departures [1]. These DHS releases mix ICE removals with other forms of departures and emphasize voluntary self‑deportation programs and CBP expulsions, producing much larger headline totals than ICE’s removal ledger alone [1] [2].
2. ICE, TRAC and independent trackers: narrower removal metrics
ICE’s published removal statistics and TRAC’s compilation show lower counts when using the standard “removals” definition that has long been used by researchers: TRAC and ICE data add up to about 290,603 removals covering FY2025 and the start of FY2026, with ICE reporting 56,392 removals so far in FY2026 and TRAC estimating 234,211 removals after the January 20, 2025 inauguration up to the FY2025 year‑end [3]. TRAC’s approach and ICE’s removal counts typically exclude many administrative expulsions, rapid border turnbacks, and voluntary departures that DHS sometimes aggregates into a broader “left the country” figure [6] [3].
3. Media analyses and academic estimates: about half a million, with caveats
Major press analyses synthesized multiple datasets and produced intermediate totals: a New York Times examination estimated roughly 230,000 people removed from the interior and another ~270,000 at the border in the first year, yielding about 500,000 deportations for the period analyzed — a figure that sits between the DHS headline claims and the ICE removal ledger but relies on different cutoffs and rounding [5]. Economists at Brookings and related demographic updates emphasize that removal figures depend on whether rapid expulsions and voluntary out‑migration are counted, and produce alternative estimates and net migration calculations that diverge from DHS headlines [7].
4. Why the numbers conflict — definitions, incentives and data gaps
The core reason for the discrepancy is definitional: ICE “removals” are a specific administrative category recorded in ICE statistics and court records, while DHS press statements often combine ICE removals with CBP expulsions, repatriations, commercial flight denials, and programmatic “self‑deportations,” creating much larger aggregates [3] [1]. Independent monitors such as Human Rights First documented a surge in enforcement flights and transfers that signal intensified operations but do not map one‑to‑one to removals counts [8]. Researchers warn that political incentives shape public messaging — DHS releases promote enforcement achievements, while TRAC, academic groups and media emphasize methodological transparency and narrower definitions [2] [3].
Bottom line answer
A defensible, evidence‑based reply is that removals recorded in ICE and TRAC datasets for the period spanning early 2025 into early 2026 total roughly 290,000 (ICE/TRAC aggregate) while broader DHS public tallies that include expulsions and voluntary departures report between about 527,000 and 675,000 “removed” or “out of the country,” with DHS also claiming millions of voluntary departures — therefore the count depends on the metric used: ≈290,000 (ICE/TRAC removals) versus ≈527k–675k (DHS aggregated removals/ departures) [3] [1] [4] [2] [5].