How many former Trump voters say they regret supporting him in recent polls?
This fact-check may be outdated. Consider refreshing it to get the most current information.
Executive summary
Multiple recent polls and journalist interviews show a rising number of 2024 Trump voters expressing regret or blaming Trump for economic pain; specific estimates vary by survey and method, with Politico reporting 37% of 2024 Trump voters saying the cost-of-living is “the worst” (implying rising dissatisfaction) and The New York Times estimating 15–25% of his 2024 voters have “changed their minds” based on public-polling aggregates [1] [2].
1. What the polls actually ask — and why that matters
Polls differ sharply in wording and sampling, and that drives headline numbers. The POLITICO Poll asked about perceptions of the cost of living and whether voters blame Trump; it found 37% of 2024 Trump voters said the cost of living is the worst they can remember, a signal of eroding support rather than a direct “I regret my vote” measure [1]. The New York Times compiled public polls and concluded that 15–25% of Trump’s 2024 voters had “changed their minds,” which is an aggregate inference across multiple surveys and not a single-question percentage of explicit regret [2]. Reuters’ field reporting found individual Trump voters who now say they regret voting, but that came from a small, qualitative set of 20 voters drawn from a larger Ipsos sample — illustrative but not nationally representative [3].
2. Direct expressions of regret: anecdote versus national estimate
Several outlets relay personal regret from former Trump voters — Reuters interviewed a group where at least two of 20 said they regretted their vote, and El País quoted Floridians who said “I regret my last vote enormously” — but these are case studies, not probability samples that produce a single national percentage of regret [3] [4]. These stories matter as on-the-ground evidence of disaffection, yet available sources do not provide a single, peer-reviewed national poll item that asks “Do you regret voting for Trump?” and returns one definitive national percentage.
3. Aggregates and interpretations: how The New York Times reached 15–25%
The New York Times compared Trump’s 49.8% share of the 2024 popular vote to current approval ratings and public polling averages (AP‑NORC, Gallup, others) and inferred that a drop in net approval corresponds to roughly 15–25% of his voters changing their minds. That is a synthesized interpretation of multiple polls, not a direct head-to-head follow-up of the same voters across time; it assumes movement in approval equals voter regret or switching — a plausible but inferential step [2].
4. Economy is the clearest driver of regret and blame
Across the reporting, the cost of living is the most consistent reason former supporters cite for dissatisfaction. POLITICO found nearly half of Americans say affordability is the worst they remember and that 37% of Trump’s 2024 voters share that view; Reuters’ interviews and other outlets tie expressions of regret to economic anxiety and policy outcomes [1] [3]. Multiple polls cited by outlets like Axios and Forbes show Trump’s handling of the economy and affordability at low marks, bolstering the conclusion that economic pain fuels waning loyalty [5] [6].
5. Geographic and subgroup nuance: it’s not uniform
Reporting highlights variation: some urban samples show shifting attitudes month to month (Newsweek’s summary of a Quantus urban sample showed a swing in approval), and state-level reporting (Axios, WomenzMag on North Carolina) finds different magnitudes of regret among swing-state or Latino Trump voters [7] [5] [8]. Reuters’ small qualitative sample and El País’ Florida reporting underline that regret is concentrated in certain constituencies, not evenly spread nationwide [3] [4].
6. Competing viewpoints and political context
Some sources portray this as a temporary dip Trump can fix with messaging or policy shifts; Newsweek noted short-term approval swings in urban samples tied to specific policy emphasis [7]. Opinion pieces in the New York Times frame the phenomenon as deeper — a betrayal of the economic promise that brought these voters to Trump — and tie it to broader concerns about ethics and governance [2]. Both interpretations use the same polling evidence but emphasize different causal stories: messaging versus structural policy failure [7] [2].
7. What’s still unknown and caveats
Available sources do not include a single, nationally representative poll question asked repeatedly that directly measures “regret” among 2024 Trump voters with a dated trendline; where numbers are provided, they are either inferred aggregates (NYT) or come from differently worded items about blame and economic perception [2] [1]. Journalistic interviews show real regret in pockets [3] [4], but these cannot be extrapolated to the entire electorate without additional polling designed to test that precise question.
Bottom line
Reporting in late 2025 shows growing and visible regret among some 2024 Trump voters, driven primarily by the cost-of-living and economic performance, with aggregate estimates ranging from qualitative anecdotes to an inferred 15–25% who “changed their minds” in The New York Times’ analysis [3] [1] [2]. Exact, single-number answers depend on question wording and sample design — and available sources do not offer one definitive national percentage of explicit “regret” asked the same way across polls [2] [1].