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How many illegal immigrants are in the United States of America
Executive Summary
The estimated number of people living in the United States without legal status ranges across credible studies from about 11 million to roughly 17 million, with the most-cited recent nonpartisan estimate centering near 14 million in 2023. Different methods—survey adjustments, administrative encounter tallies, and partisan modeling—produce divergent totals, and recent surge patterns at the border complicate translating encounters into a settled population figure [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. Why experts disagree — the mechanics behind every headline
Estimates differ because researchers start from different data and apply different assumptions about undercount, mobility, and legal-status assignment, producing materially different totals even from similar inputs. Nonpartisan demographic analysts typically use U.S. Census Bureau surveys (ACS, CPS, SIPP), then subtract lawful migrants and adjust for survey nonresponse to infer the unauthorized population; Migration Policy Institute’s 2019 work exemplifies this approach and produced roughly 11.0 million for 2019 using pooled ACS/SIPP data and DHS admissions adjustments [1]. By contrast, groups that produce higher totals often apply larger undercount adjustments, rely on alternative assumptions about naturalizations or visa flows, or incorporate recent border activity differently, which inflates their counts [2]. These methodological choices directly drive the range of published figures and explain why a single “correct” number does not exist.
2. The mainstream, nonpartisan snapshot — Pew’s 2023 peak
Pew Research Center’s analysis found the unauthorized population reached an all‑time high of 14 million in 2023, marking the largest two‑year increase in decades and reflecting migration from countries beyond Mexico; Pew’s work is widely cited because it integrates multiple data streams and documents its assumptions [3] [4]. Pew also notes the broader immigrant population reached record levels by early 2025, which provides context for the unauthorized estimate because overall migration trends, naturalizations, and legal admissions affect the residual unauthorized count. Pew’s 2023 figure is the most recent widely accepted nonpartisan benchmark, but Pew itself and other demographers acknowledge preliminary signals could push later-year totals higher or lower depending on enforcement, deportations, and changes in parole programs [5].
3. The high-end claims — partisan models and their logic
Some advocacy organizations publish significantly higher figures; for example, the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) estimated 16.8 million unauthorized residents in mid‑2023 by applying a larger undercount adjustment and different treatment of visa overstays and parolees [2]. FAIR’s methodology and conclusions align with a policy agenda emphasizing larger unauthorized populations and the effects of reduced enforcement; independent analysts routinely flag those organizational agendas when interpreting such numbers. The higher estimates are not impossible given methodological variance, but they rest on assumptions about nonresponse and concealed status that differ substantially from mainstream academic practice, which is why such figures sit at the top end of the plausible range [2].
4. Border encounters vs. resident totals — why “crossings” don’t equal “population”
Administrative statistics on border encounters, inadmissible releases, and removals show very large flows—millions of encounters since FY2021 and millions released or paroled—which media and officials sometimes conflate with the settled unauthorized population [6]. For instance, a 10.8 million cumulative encounter count since FY2021 and reports of over 1.4 million released via parole programs illustrate high throughput at the border, but encounters include repeat apprehensions, asylum-seekers later granted status, and short‑term releases; they do not directly equal the number of people residing unlawfully. Congressional and DHS briefings referencing removals or “2 million out in 250 days” describe operational activity, not a static population estimate, so administrative flow data illuminate pressure points without resolving the resident-count debate [6] [7].
5. Bottom line: a defensible range and what to watch next
Combining the most credible recent analyses yields a defensible range of about 11 million to 17 million, with a best nonpartisan point estimate near 14 million as of 2023, and ongoing uncertainty about 2024–25 dynamics because of enforcement shifts and parole policy changes [1] [2] [3] [4]. Policymakers and journalists should treat any single headline number with caution: methodology matters as much as the headline, and administrative flows should not be read as an immediate change in resident population without careful adjustment. For updates, watch for new Pew or Migration Policy Institute releases and official DHS demographic analyses that apply consistent, transparent methods to reconcile survey data, administrative records, and encounter counts [5] [1].