How many people starved to death because of USAID shutdown?
Executive summary
No single, independently verified count exists of how many people “starved to death” specifically because of the USAID shutdown; peer-reviewed studies and expert trackers place excess deaths from the cuts anywhere from the hundreds of thousands in the near term to many millions over coming years depending on the model and horizon used (for example, estimates cited range from roughly 367,000 up to projections of more than 14 million cumulative additional deaths by 2030) [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. What the numbers being reported actually are
Several research teams and policy groups have produced estimates rather than precise counts: Boston University and tracker work led by Brooke Nichols produced a running dashboard with figures in the hundreds of thousands for excess deaths attributable to halted USAID programs in the short term (one cited figure used in reporting was about 367,000) [1] [5], Harvard’s Atul Gawande referenced a model-based total of roughly 600,000 deaths already attributable to the dismantling of USAID, two‑thirds of them children [2], the Center for Global Development updated its range and placed likely lives lost in the roughly 500,000–1,000,000 range (with broader potential ranges up to 1.6 million depending on accounting choices) [3], and an academic consortium reported projections that continued cuts could lead to more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030 (including millions of children) [4] [6].
2. Why these are estimates, not confirmed death tolls
These figures are model-based projections that combine budget declines, historical program efficacy (for example, USAID‑supported programs were estimated to have prevented tens of millions of deaths over prior decades), and epidemiological relationships; they are not direct counts of bodies linked by forensic cause to a single policy action, and researchers caution that excess mortality can be delayed, scattered geographically, and difficult to attribute uniquely to one funding change [4] [2] [5].
3. Ground-level reporting that documents actual deaths and hunger outcomes
Investigative reporting and humanitarian field accounts provide concrete, localized evidence of death and starvation following cuts: ProPublica documented cholera deaths and clinic collapses in South Sudan linked to the withdrawal of U.S.-funded services, and reporting from Kenya documented dozens of child deaths in one hospital with malnutrition complications in 2025 amid rationing after aid reductions (ProPublica found an undercounted cholera toll and unmarked graves; another piece reported at least 54 children dying with malnutrition complications) [7] [8]. The AP documented individual deaths and warned that reduced therapeutic food supply could result in roughly 163,500 additional child deaths per year in one modeling estimate tied to lost treatment capacity [9].
4. Disagreement among analysts and the role of assumptions
The wide spread between hundreds of thousands and many millions stems from different baselines, timeframes, and assumptions about how cuts ripple through health systems, food programs, and immunization campaigns: some models look at immediate outlays and obligations and estimate near‑term excess deaths (hundreds of thousands), while other peer‑reviewed projections extrapolate sustained cuts over years and estimate cumulative deaths into the millions by 2030 [3] [4] [6]. Political and advocacy actors use these studies to make competing moral and policy claims—Senator Brian Schatz framed the cuts as causing death and starvation [10], while critics of foreign aid argue some recipient governments should pick up services [11].
5. Bottom line: how many people starved to death because of the USAID shutdown?
There is no single, verifiable global body count that can be attributed solely to the USAID shutdown; instead, multiple reputable studies and trackers consistently show substantial excess mortality linked to the cuts—ranging from several hundred thousand excess deaths in the shorter term to projections of many millions by 2030 if reductions persist—while point reporting documents confirmed deaths and rising malnutrition in specific countries (estimates cited include roughly 367,000 and 600,000 in short‑term models, 500,000–1,000,000 in CGD updates, and projections of >14 million cumulative additional deaths by 2030 in multi‑year modeling) [1] [2] [3] [4] [6] [7] [8]. Reporting and research are consistent on direction and magnitude—these policy decisions have caused large numbers of preventable deaths—but attribution to a singular “starved to death” tally remains an estimate-driven exercise grounded in modeling and corroborated local reporting rather than a consolidated death registry [5] [9].