How many unauthorized immigrants crossing the US border now
Executive summary
Current official data show unauthorized crossings at near-historic lows: U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) encounter counts have fallen to monthly and daily figures not seen in decades, with agencies reporting averages under 10,000 apprehensions per month and daily Border Patrol apprehensions as low as about 258 per day in early Fiscal Year 2026 (CBP/DHS reporting) [1] [2]. However, "how many unauthorized immigrants are crossing now" cannot be answered as a single definitive count because encounters are an imperfect proxy and do not capture every successful evasion or visa overstay (Migration Policy/USAFacts) [3] [4].
1. What the official numbers actually show today: record-low CBP encounters
CBP's published encounter statistics and recent DHS releases describe a dramatic drop: preliminary FY2026 reporting touts "record-low encounters," a sixth straight month of zero USBP releases, and a reported daily average of roughly 258 Border Patrol apprehensions early in the fiscal year—figures DHS frames as the lowest start to a fiscal year in CBP history (DHS/CBP statements) [1] [5] [6]. Independent analysts at the Migration Policy Institute underline the scale of the decline, noting Border Patrol reported fewer than 8,400 irregular crossers in a recent month compared with nearly 250,000 in December 2023 [4].
2. Why encounters are only a proxy — and an imperfect one
Experts and data compilers stress that CBP "encounters"—which include Title 8 apprehensions, inadmissibles at ports of entry, and Title 42 expulsions—measure government contact, not total successful entries, and therefore understate the number who may cross undetected or enter lawfully and then overstay visas (CBP descriptions; USAFacts) [7] [8] [3]. Government statistical offices acknowledge methodological complexity and rely on models, surveys and multiple data sources to estimate unobserved flows, meaning encounter trends are the best available near‑real‑time indicator but not a full accounting (OHSS/Census-type caveats; USAFacts) [9] [3].
3. The gap between apprehensions and actual unauthorized entries — "gotaways" and overstays
Historical work and Congressional reporting highlight that apprehension rates and "gotaway" estimates can produce very different pictures: past years saw large disparities between Border Patrol stops and analyst estimates of successful evaders, and visa overstays have contributed a large and growing share of the undocumented population (USAFacts; congressional reporting) [3] [10]. Some partisan fact sheets amplify "gotaway" totals or aggregate nationwide encounters to make political points; government data portals and independent researchers caution against equating encounters directly with total unauthorized inflow without modeling unseen activity [10] [8].
4. Context, trendlines and competing narratives
Multiple sources agree that crossings peaked in 2023 and fell sharply through 2024–2025; the Trump administration and DHS emphasize enforcement successes and near‑historic lows in 2025–2026, while independent analysts point to a mix of enforcement, regional downturns (for example the Darien Gap), and policy changes as drivers of declines—factors that could be temporary or sustained (DHS/White House claims; Migration Policy; BBC reporting on long-term lows) [1] [4] [11] [12]. Longer‑term measures of the unauthorized population (e.g., Pew Research estimates cited in secondary sources) suggest the stock of undocumented residents can move on different dynamics than short‑term cross‑border flows [13].
5. Bottom line — a precise short answer and its limits
Short answer: official CBP encounter counts indicate that unauthorized crossings are currently at near‑historic lows—monthly totals often under 10,000 and daily Border Patrol apprehensions in the low hundreds in early FY2026—yet no authoritative source can state a single exact number of people "crossing the border now" because encounters miss undetected crossings and visa overstays, and robust estimates require modeling beyond raw encounter counts [1] [2] [3] [4]. Readers should treat CBP encounter figures as the most timely public signal of current flows while recognizing substantial uncertainty about unobserved entries and differing interpretations promoted by government press releases and partisan summaries [1] [6] [10].