How many illegal immigrants have self-deported
Executive summary
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has publicly claimed that between roughly 1.6 million and 1.9 million people “self‑deported” from the United States during 2025 as part of the administration’s enforcement push, a figure repeated across multiple DHS press releases [1] [2] [3]. Independent reporters and analysts have flagged that much of this total rests on modeling, app usage data and population estimates rather than a one‑to‑one count of documented voluntary departures, making the precise number contested [4] [5] [6].
1. What DHS is claiming: headline figures and programs
DHS press statements in 2025 repeatedly reported that more than 2 million noncitizens left the country overall and attributed between 1.6 million and 1.9 million of those departures to “self‑deportation,” with specific releases citing 1.6 million in October and 1.9 million by December as the administration updated its totals [1] [2] [3]. Those releases describe incentives and tools tied to the tally—most notably the CBP Home app and a $1,000 airfare incentive for voluntary departure—that DHS says helped register and facilitate departures it counts as voluntary [1] [4] [7].
2. What independent data and reporting show
Newsweek’s reporting based on ICE FOIA data found that ICE had removed roughly 145,000 people from detention through July 31 and calculated that about 1.6 million people had left the U.S. population since January 20 using available departure records and population shifts, a figure Newsweek presented as consistent with parts of the DHS narrative but based on separate ICE records and demographic analysis [4]. Outside analysts such as the Center for Immigration Studies have argued that mid‑year population estimates showing a drop of roughly 2.3 million in the foreign‑born population between January and September make DHS’s self‑deport figures “in the ballpark,” while stressing uncertainty in methodology [8].
3. Skepticism and methodological caveats
Several critics and local outlets have pushed back, calling DHS’s self‑deport numbers implausible without clearer documentation: a San Diego Voice & Viewpoint piece called the 1.6 million claim a “self‑serving fantasy,” arguing the scale would have produced observable societal effects and that survey and CPS data are a poor basis for estimating out‑migration from threatened communities [6]. Local reporting for KATV noted DHS told CBS it used USCIS numbers to model some self‑deportation estimates but did not detail the calculations, and acknowledged that many departures are not reported to the government, complicating verification [5].
4. Context: population baselines and what the numbers imply
Pew Research estimated the U.S. unauthorized population at about 14 million in 2023, with roughly 12+ million having entered illegally or overstayed visas, a baseline that frames how large a 1.6–1.9 million self‑departure figure would be relative to the total unauthorized population [9]. That context is why analysts debate plausibility: a unilateral exodus of several hundred thousand per month would likely leave stronger signals in labor markets, school and health‑service use, and household surveys—signals that critics say are not uniformly visible [6] [9].
5. Bottom line: best current answer and limits of available evidence
The most direct answer from federal releases is that approximately 1.6 million to 1.9 million people have been reported by DHS as having “self‑deported” in 2025, but that number is an administrative estimate that mixes documented voluntary departures, app‑facilitated exits, and modeled population declines rather than a counted list of individuals who formally notified authorities [1] [2] [4]. Independent verification is limited: some analysts find the magnitude plausible when looking at year‑over‑year population changes, while journalists and advocacy outlets call for transparency about data sources, methods and the portion that represents undocumented movement versus reclassification or data artifacts [8] [5] [6].