How many illegal aliens in Minnesota?
Executive summary
Estimates of Minnesota’s population without lawful immigration status cluster in the mid-five-figure range but vary by methodology: recent prominent estimates center around roughly 95,000 to 130,000 people [1] [2]. Differences reflect varying data sources, timing and whether groups such as DACA, TPS holders or recent parolees are included or excluded [3].
1. What the headline numbers say — two common estimates
Two commonly cited contemporary figures are an estimate of about 95,000 undocumented people in Minnesota, used by the Minnesota Budget Project and echoed in some state analyses [1], and a separate Pew Research-derived figure of roughly 130,000 unauthorized immigrants in Minnesota as of 2023, reported in regional media [2]. Both numbers appear in recent public reporting and advocacy work, but they are not identical because they rely on different adjustments, weighting and cutoffs [2] [1].
2. Why estimates differ — methodology, definitions and timing
Researchers and organizations use different inputs: the Migration Policy Institute’s approach imputes unauthorized status using pooled American Community Survey and SIPP data and explicitly counts a range of “liminal” statuses like DACA, TPS, parole and pending asylum in some cases [3], while other estimates adjust ACS undercounts or rely on tax-record adjustments or state-specific administrative data [4]. Timing matters too: the unauthorized population nationally and in Minnesota changed rapidly in the early 2020s, so 2019, 2022 and 2023-based estimates can diverge substantially [3] [2].
3. What other sources and historical estimates show
Older and alternative studies give a wider bracket: a Pew Hispanic Center historical range once put Minnesota’s unauthorized population between roughly 55,000 and 85,000 in prior years [5], and some commentators have cited an 81,000 estimate for 2019 [6]. Academic and state tools that adjust ACS undercounting produce their own point estimates and sometimes report figures close to the 95,000 mark used in state fiscal impact discussions [4] [1].
4. What the numbers mean for policy discussions and potential bias
The choice of a single figure can drive policy narratives: higher estimates are often cited by media and officials emphasizing scale and recent increases [2], while lower or older estimates are used by critics to argue for less dramatic change [5]. Advocacy organizations and budget analysts typically highlight the economic contributions and fiscal impacts tied to their preferred estimate [1], whereas some outlets or commentators emphasize migration surges to support enforcement-focused positions [2] [6]. Each actor brings implicit agendas—advocacy toward relief or restraint toward enforcement—that shape which estimate is amplified.
5. Best available answer and limits of the record
The best-supported, recent reporting presents a plausible range rather than a single precise count: roughly 95,000 to 130,000 people without lawful status in Minnesota, depending on definitions and data year [1] [2]. This bracket aligns with multiple state and national analyses, but exactitude is impossible from public sources because unauthorized status must be imputed from surveys and administrative adjustments and because migration flows changed quickly during the early 2020s [3] [4]. Public sources do not provide a definitive census-style count of people “in the country illegally,” so transparency about methods and dates is essential when quoting any number.