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What is the total amount of dark money spent in the 2024 election?
Executive summary
Independent analyses find that “dark money” spending in the 2024 federal election cycle was about $1.9 billion to “almost $2 billion,” a record high and roughly double 2020 levels according to the Brennan Center’s synthesis of FEC data and ad-tracking research [1] [2]. Other trackers and commentators place related totals differently — OpenSecrets reports overall outside spending of about $4.5 billion with “more than half” from groups that do not fully disclose donors, while some outlets offer much smaller nonprofit-only tallies such as $170 million or $311 million for specific entities — reflecting differing definitions and measurement methods [3] [4] [5].
1. Why three different headline numbers keep appearing: methodology fights
Estimates vary because groups disagree about what counts as “dark money.” The Brennan Center’s almost-$2 billion figure combines FEC filings for non‑disclosing entities, TV ad data from the Wesleyan Media Project and online ad totals from platforms — and purposely avoids double‑counting transfers to super PACs — yielding a conservative estimate of dark spending [1] [6]. OpenSecrets frames the question more broadly: it reports $4.5 billion in outside spending overall and says “more than half” of that came from entities that do not fully disclose donors, which is a different denominator and classification than the Brennan Center’s focused dark‑money tally [3]. Smaller numbers such as $170.22 million or single‑group totals like $311 million reflect still narrower views (nonprofit direct spending, one organization’s tax filings) and should not be conflated with total dark‑money influence across the cycle [4] [5].
2. What the leading analyses actually measure
The Brennan Center’s study — widely cited as the basis for the “$1.9 billion” / “almost $2 billion” messaging — integrates FEC disclosure gaps with TV and certain online ad tracking and explicitly warns it likely understates the true total because some spending cannot be reliably traced [1] [6] [2]. The Wesleyan Media Project separately documented that outside groups ran over $2.2 billion in broadcast TV ads in the cycle and that a non‑trivial share of those ads originated from non‑disclosing groups [7]. OpenSecrets’ $4.5 billion figure counts all outside spending (super PACs, outside groups) and then highlights that a majority of that total came from entities that “do not fully disclose” donors — a different framing from counting only spending by legally non‑disclosing nonprofits [3].
3. Who benefited and where the money showed up
Brennan Center analysis found most traceable dark‑money spending favored Democrats (~$1.2 billion) while about $664 million backed Republicans in 2024, and it flagged that the presidential race attracted heavy super PAC dollars [1]. The Wesleyan Media Project shows the lion’s share of outside TV ad dollars went to the presidential ($900 million), Senate ($775 million) and House ($560 million) contests, and that non‑disclosing groups accounted for a meaningful slice of early‑cycle and online buying [7]. Other trackers point to substantial flows from nonprofits into super PACs and note the common practice of routing anonymous donations through nonprofits or shell companies to obscure original funders [8] [9].
4. What analysts warn about: undercounts and “gray money”
Multiple sources stress that headline figures are likely underestimates. Brennan Center and others note much money flows indirectly — donations from nonprofits into super PACs, early or small buys not tracked by ad monitors, platform reporting gaps — producing a conservative public tally that “perhaps substantially” understates reality [6] [2]. Commentators also use “gray money” to describe transfers from non‑disclosing groups into disclosed super PAC coffers, complicating efforts to separate truly anonymous spending from money that becomes transparent only after intermediaries [10].
5. Competing narratives and political stakes
Some groups and commentators argue dark‑money sums are comparatively small relative to total spending; for example, one organization’s breakdown presents nonprofit totals as a small share of the overall federal spending pool and urges perspective when debating reform [4]. By contrast, advocacy organizations and legal groups stress the record levels and the democratic risk of undisclosed influence, urging stronger disclosure rules [2] [8]. Both positions rely on different choices about which dollars to include and which policy problems to prioritize.
6. Bottom line for readers
Available reporting converges around a conservative, research‑based estimate that dark‑money groups directly spent about $1.9 billion (rounded as “almost $2 billion”) in 2024 federal races, while broader measures of outside spending (including disclosed super PACs and transfers) put the larger outside‑spending universe around $4.5 billion and show much of that money was connected to non‑disclosing sources [1] [3] [2]. Exact totals depend on definitions and data sources; analysts uniformly warn public tallies likely undercount the full scale because of routing through intermediaries and limits in ad‑tracking and platform disclosures [6] [2].