How did public opinion of Donald Trump change from 2016 to 2025?
Executive summary
Donald Trump’s public standing shifted from a narrow, volatile approval and mixed favorability in 2016 to a more solidified partisan base and higher early-2025 approval among Republicans, but by mid- and late‑2025 his overall approval dropped to levels comparable with his first term lows (roughly high‑30s to low‑40s approval; disapproval in the 50s–60s) [1] [2] [3]. International confidence in Trump’s leadership fell sharply by 2025, with major Pew and international surveys showing low global confidence in his handling of world affairs [4] [5].
1. From surprise victor to polarized presidency: what 2016 looked like
In 2016 Trump won the presidency with a narrow electoral map advantage and mixed popular support; post‑election polls and analyses in the years that followed showed that many Americans held ambivalent views—favorability and approval were often split and volatile during his first term (available sources do not give a single consolidated 2016 national approval number here, but Gallup’s historical approval tracking and contemporaneous reporting captured that his early ratings were low compared with many prior new presidents) [1].
2. The 2016–2020 arc: entrenched partisan divides
Across his first term Trump’s approval tended to track as highly partisan: Republicans overwhelmingly favored him while Democrats overwhelmingly disapproved. Group‑level measures—by race and religious affiliation—showed deep divides, with Black Americans and some religious groups consistently among his lowest favorability ratings (for example, Black favorability hitting 7–8% in 2016 and 2020 per PRRI) [6] [7].
3. Re‑entry in 2024–early 2025: a stronger base, a different coalition
By the 2024 campaign and into early 2025, multiple sources reported that Trump returned with a more durable core: PRRI and Statista found Republican favorability above 80% among party identifiers and very strong “very favorable” views among Republicans [7] [2]. Pew’s post‑2024 electorate analysis found Trump’s 2024 coalition to be more racially and ethnically diverse than in 2016, and turnout among his voters was relatively high—89% of his 2024 voters returned—helping secure electoral victory [8].
4. Early second‑term approval: initially higher than 2017 but fragile
Poll tracking into January 2025 showed Trump beginning his second term with approval ratings that some pollsters judged higher than at comparable points in 2017, yet many polls also flagged negative personal favorability and weak ratings on specific appointees and issues (YouGov/Economist’s January and April snapshots showed a net approval near -8 or low‑40s approval, matching net approval at the same stage of his first term) [9] [10].
5. Mid‑2025 international fallout: loss of confidence abroad
Independent global polling in 2025 documented a sharp decline in confidence in Trump’s leadership across many countries: Pew’s 2025 global attitudes survey found more than half of adults in 19 of 24 countries lacked confidence in Trump on world affairs, and reporting in Politico and Wikipedia summaries highlighted that U.S. popularity declined internationally after his return [5] [4] [11].
6. Late‑2025 slump: approvals slide toward first‑term lows
By November 2025 multiple outlets and pollsters reported a fall in Trump’s approval into the high‑30s to low‑40s and new second‑term lows in several polls—Reuters/Ipsos put approval at 38% in mid‑November 2025 and Gallup later reported a drop to 36% [3] [12]. Analysts cited economic pressures (higher prices tied to tariffs), political scandals (Epstein files), and contentious policy fights as drivers of the decline [3] [13].
7. Geographic and demographic nuance: strong Republican base, weak across many others
State and subgroup data show Trump maintaining strong approval in Republican‑dominated states (e.g., Wyoming, West Virginia) and near‑universal disfavor among Democrats, while performance in battlegrounds eroded at times—poll aggregates and state maps show persistent regional variation and an erosion in some 2016‑winning states [14] [15] [16].
8. What this arc means: consolidation, polarization, and vulnerability
Available reporting paints a consistent story: Trump consolidated and even expanded a dependable electoral coalition by 2024–25 while becoming more polarizing and less popular outside his base both domestically and internationally; that consolidation made him electorally resilient but also left him vulnerable to drops in overall approval when economic and political headwinds mounted [8] [5] [3].
Limitations and open questions: the sources here are a mix of national polls, partisan‑leaning tracker notes, and international surveys; poll wording, timing and sampling differences drive variation [16] [4]. Available sources do not provide a single continuous numeric trajectory from 2016 through 2025 that reconciles every poll; instead they report snapshots and subgroup trends that together show a move from volatile 2016 favorability to a firmer partisan base by 2025, punctuated by a late‑2025 overall approval decline [1] [7] [3].