How did public opinion about Trump change over time and after major events (impeachments, Jan. 6, 2020 election)?
Executive summary
Public opinion about Donald Trump has been highly polarized and event-driven: after the Jan. 6, 2021 attack and the subsequent second impeachment, major polls showed a narrow majority or plurality favoring conviction or blaming him for the riot, while his approval ratings have swung in a tight range—often between the high 30s and low 40s—through 2025, hitting lows around 38% amid controversies like the Jeffrey Epstein files and rising cost-of-living concerns [1] [2] [3]. Polls from 2020 and 2021 show that impeachment and the 2020 election dispute produced sharp partisan divides — large Democratic support for sanctions versus overwhelming Republican opposition — with independents split or shifting modestly [4] [5] [6].
1. A presidency measured in two patterns: steady partisan core, swingy margins
Across multiple trackers and national polls, Trump has consistently kept a strong, stable base among Republicans while overall approval hovered largely between roughly 38% and the low 40s in 2025; outlets aggregating polls and trackers report his approval falling to about 38% in November 2025, described as a second-term low on several surveys [2] [3] [7]. Nate Silver’s bulletin and long-running trackers show issue-specific declines — notably on the economy and inflation — that help explain why aggregate approval can erode even while partisan loyalty remains high [8].
2. Impeachments moved the needle for the public — mostly along partisan lines
Public reaction to both impeachment episodes showed clear partisan splits but some shifts in the middle. In early 2020 and again after Jan. 6, polls found many Americans supporting impeachment and, in some surveys, a slim majority wanting conviction in the Senate — for example Gallup and Monmouth found about 52% favoring conviction or supporting impeachment-related actions during the January 2021 episode — while Democrats overwhelmingly backed removal and Republicans opposed it [4] [1] [6]. Pew research later documented that about a quarter of Americans, looking back, said Trump did nothing wrong in the first impeachment, again underscoring entrenched partisan lenses [5].
3. Jan. 6: a political and reputational inflection point, with mixed effects
The Capitol attack produced immediate public condemnation from many quarters and a surge in support for punitive measures in some polls — the AP-NORC and Quinnipiac surveys showed majorities assigning at least some blame and endorsing impeachment or removal in early 2021 [9] [10]. Institutional investigations (the House Select Committee) and reporting documented Trump’s rhetoric and behavior around Jan. 6, fueling public debate; the committee concluded he lauded rioters and did not act swiftly to stop the violence, a record that pollsters tied to higher public disapproval among independents and moderates [11] [12].
4. The 2020 election dispute: erosion of consensus, durable belief among supporters
After the 2020 election, repeated legal defeats and rulings did not persuade a large share of Trump voters to accept the result: Pew found only small percentages of Trump voters conceding Biden’s straightforward win, and comprehensive legal review shows most lawsuits failed — a dynamic that hardened partisan attitudes and made post-election controversies a lasting public-opinion factor [13] [14]. University of Chicago and academic studies describe those efforts as having lasting democratic costs and political consequences that shaped voter attitudes and turnout in 2020 and beyond [15] [16].
5. Events after 2024 (Epstein files, pardons, economic worries) further dented approval
By late 2025, new controversies — notably the push to release Jeffrey Epstein files and questions about Trump’s handling of cost-of-living concerns — coincided with fresh poll lows (Reuters/Ipsos showing ~38% approval; Ipsos reporting the same) and renewed media scrutiny about pardons for Jan. 6 defendants, which critics said amplified concerns about accountability; these developments were linked in coverage to a dip in approval tied to both scandal and pocketbook issues [2] [3] [17].
6. How to interpret the shifts: context, partisanship, and polling limits
Analysts and polling shops caution that Trump-era polling is subject to strong partisan sorting, house effects, and polling methodology differences; Nate Silver and others stress disagreement among pollsters and the need to watch issue-specific nets (economy, inflation) rather than only headline approval, while outlets emphasize that small swings can reflect sampling rather than fundamental realignment [8]. The 2020 election polling controversy also reminds readers that survey errors and population changes can complicate interpretation [18].
7. Competing narratives and what remains uncertain
Supporters frame declines as media bias or “phony polls,” arguing base loyalty remains robust; critics point to policy failures, legal controversies, and actions around Jan. 6 as drivers of broader public unease [7] [19]. Available sources do not mention long-term causal estimates tying any single event (impeachment, Jan. 6, Epstein files) to later election outcomes without qualification; they instead present polls, legal findings, and analyst interpretation that together show both immediate reactions and persistent partisan divides [4] [11] [2].
Limitations: This summary synthesizes the provided polling and reporting snapshots; trends depend on poll timing, question wording and pollster methodology, and available sources here focus heavily on 2020–2025 snapshots rather than a continuous longitudinal model [8] [2].