Have ICE arrest demographics (criminal vs civil) changed since 2017 and why?
Executive summary
ICE arrest and detention demographics have shifted since 2017: in the immediate aftermath of the 2017 executive orders a clear majority of arrests reported that year were of people with prior criminal convictions (roughly three-quarters), but more recent reporting and datasets (through 2024–2025) show substantial increases in detention and a growing share of people held with no criminal convictions; this evolution reflects changing DHS/ICE priorities, pandemic disruptions, enforcement pushes under different administrations, congressional bed mandates, and limits in ICE data reporting that complicate precise comparisons [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. The 2017 baseline: a defensive narrative and a real shift toward criminal-focused arrests
After President Trump’s executive orders in early 2017, ICE publicly emphasized that arrests would prioritize convicted criminals, and ICE reported that roughly 74–75 percent of arrestees in that period had criminal convictions, with a surge in both criminal and non-criminal arrests compared with 2016 but with convicted offenders forming the majority of ICE’s claimed enforcement actions [1] [2]. ICE and some analysts framed that moment as a substantive change from earlier years—indeed, Pew’s analysis documented that in 2009 the majority of arrestees lacked convictions, making 2017 a reversal toward criminally focused interior enforcement [2].
2. Policy pendulum and the pandemic: interruptions that muddied trends
From 2019 through 2021 ICE’s enforcement posture and policies changed multiple times—data show arrests and removals declined from 2019 into the pandemic, then partially rebounded by 2022, and DHS issued a September 2021 directive prioritizing national security, public safety and border security that formally limited broad interior enforcement [3] [5]. COVID-era expulsions and border policies drove dramatic drops in detentions in 2020–2021, producing a historic low in midnight detention populations early in the pandemic before numbers began climbing again as policies relaxed [5] [6]. These discontinuities make year‑to‑year comparisons fraught [3].
3. The recent reversal: more detention and more noncriminal detainees in the mid‑2020s
Independent trackers and policy analysts report that by 2024–2025 detention grew sharply and that a large share of people in ICE custody had no criminal conviction—TRAC and Migration Policy Center reporting place the non‑convicted share around 71–74 percent of detainees in late 2025, and media and think‑tank analyses document an expansion of bed space and reliance on nontraditional facilities during the surge [4] [7] [6]. These figures signal a reversal from the 2017 arrest profile when most arrestees were reported as having prior convictions [1] [2].
4. Why the composition changed: policy, capacity, and incentives
Multiple drivers explain the demographic shift: changing DHS enforcement priorities (including the 2017 expansion and the 2021 reprioritization) produced waves of interior arrests and releases [1] [3]; pandemic border controls altered the pool of people encountered and detained [5]; Congress and administrations influence detention capacity and incentives—bed mandates and expanded contracts enable larger detention populations, which can translate into more arrests of non‑convicted, removable noncitizens [7] [6]. Local cooperation or resistance—sheriff practices and 287(g) workarounds—also affect who is arrested out of jails and lockups [8].
5. Limits in the record and competing narratives
Data reporting problems and methodological choices complicate any definitive claim: the GAO found ICE understates detention totals by excluding people first booked into temporary facilities, and public datasets vary in scope and timing, meaning trends depend on which data one uses and how “criminal” is defined (convictions vs. pending charges) [3]. ICE’s own messaging stresses public‑safety priorities [9], while advocacy groups and independent trackers emphasize rising detention and a growing non‑convicted share [4] [7]; both perspectives are supported by parts of the record but neither alone fully captures the nuance.
6. Bottom line: yes, demographics have shifted — but the story is complex
The empirical arc since 2017 is not linear: 2017 saw a documented emphasis on arrests of people with criminal convictions, but subsequent policy changes, the pandemic, expansion of detention capacity, and renewed enforcement surges by the mid‑2020s are associated with a higher share of non‑convicted people in detention, even as ICE continues to claim a public‑safety focus; incomplete and inconsistent reporting by ICE and differing definitions of “criminal” versus “civil” complicate precise measurement and attribution [1] [2] [5] [4] [3].