How do ICE arrest rates per 100,000 noncitizen residents differ from per 100,000 total residents across states in 2025?

1. What the two rates actually measure and why they diverge

A rate per 100,000 total residents divides ICE arrests by the entire state population, producing a comparatively small number because citizens vastly outnumber noncitizens; a rate per 100,000 noncitizen residents divides the same arrests by the subset of people who are noncitizens, so the smaller denominator produces a much larger rate and therefore amplifies enforcement intensity against that specific group ^{[4] [6]}. Analysts explicitly use the noncitizen denominator to assess how concentrated arrests are within immigrant communities, while per-total-resident rates are useful for comparing the overall burden of enforcement across states with different population sizes ^{[4] [5]}.

2. Headline comparisons from 2025 reporting — concrete examples

Regional reporting shows the contrast: data for the San Francisco ICE area of responsibility yields about 217 arrests per 100,000 noncitizens between January and mid‑October 2025, which researchers note is far below a national rate reported as nearly 1,000 per 100,000 noncitizens for the same broad period ^[1]. By contrast, state-level per‑total‑resident figures in several summaries place Texas among the highest with per‑capita figures reported around 86.6 per 100,000 residents in one summary and an elevated 110 per 100,000 residents in a later Prison Policy analysis of two subperiods in 2025 ^{[2] [3]}. Those side-by-side numbers illustrate the arithmetic: hundreds per 100,000 noncitizens versus tens-to-low-hundreds per 100,000 total residents ^{[1] [2] [3]}.

3. How much bigger are per‑noncitizen rates in practice?

Because the noncitizen denominator is often a small fraction of a state’s population, per‑noncitizen arrest rates can be an order of magnitude larger than per‑total‑resident rates for the same set of arrests; UCLA and Deportation Data Project analyses that calculate arrests per 1,000 or per 100,000 noncitizens show arrest rates that look dramatically larger than the same arrest counts spread over total-state populations ^{[4] [6]}. Practically, a state showing ~50 arrests per 100,000 total residents could correspond to several hundred or even near‑thousand arrests per 100,000 noncitizens depending on how large the noncitizen population is in that state ^{[2] [1]}.

4. State variation and policy context that widens gaps between the metrics

Reports consistently show that states with high absolute arrest counts or with strong local‑to‑federal enforcement cooperation—Texas, Florida, California in several accounts—account for large shares of arrests and therefore show high per‑total‑resident figures as well as very high per‑noncitizen figures when the local noncitizen population is relatively small; analyses attribute spikes to policy shifts and increased jail transfers and community operations in 2025 ^{[7] [3] [8]}. Northern California’s relatively low per‑noncitizen rate compared to the national average is cited as evidence that local practices and office-level enforcement priorities can substantially moderate or amplify those per‑noncitizen rates ^{[1] [3]}.

5. Data limits, methodological caveats, and alternative views

Comparisons across states and between denominators require caution: the Deportation Data Project and appended ICE releases have gaps in linkage and time coverage, ICE counts events (which can double‑count people), and researchers note differences in time windows and in which agencies’ arrests (e.g., CBP vs ICE) are included; Prison Policy’s appendix and the Deportation Data Project documentation explicitly warn about these limitations ^{[5] [6]}. Observers differ on emphasis—advocates use per‑noncitizen rates to highlight enforcement targeting, while some policymakers emphasize per‑total‑resident metrics to discuss public‑safety impacts—so both measures reflect distinct analytical and political agendas ^{[4] [3]}.

6. Bottom line: what the difference tells readers in 2025

The simple, direct answer is that per‑100,000 noncitizen arrest rates are substantially higher—often many times higher—than per‑100,000 total‑resident rates across states in 2025 because the noncitizen denominator is much smaller; concrete public reporting shows per‑noncitizen figures in the hundreds to near‑thousands in some measures versus per‑total figures typically in the tens to low hundreds, with significant state‑by‑state variation driven by local cooperation, office priorities, and changing federal directives ^{[1] [2] [3]}. Analysts and reporters should use the metric that matches the question being asked while making the denominator explicit to avoid misleading comparisons ^{[5] [4]}.