How do ICE arrest rates per 100,000 residents compare across states in 2025?
Executive summary
State-by-state ICE arrest rates in 2025 varied sharply: Texas emerges as the epicenter with the highest per‑capita arrest rates in multiple analyses, while some West Coast areas—most notably Northern California—ran far below national averages when rates are adjusted by relevant denominators; comparisons depend heavily on the time window and whether rates are expressed per 100,000 residents or per 100,000 noncitizens, and on whether jail‑based or community arrests are counted [1] [2] [3].
1. The headline numbers: Texas at the top, big gaps between states
Multiple datasets and reporting show Texas recording the highest ICE arrest rates in 2025, with Prison Policy finding Texas’ arrest rate nearly doubled from about 58 to 110 per 100,000 state residents between two 2025 periods (Jan 20–May 20 vs May 21–Oct 15) and other summaries placing Texas at roughly 86.6 per 100,000 over early 2025 windows used in commercial compilations [1] [4]; by contrast, many states register much lower rates—Alabama’s rate during May 21–Oct 15 was 38 per 100,000, which the Prison Policy analysis still ranked in the top 20, underscoring how concentrated enforcement was in certain states [5].
2. How denominators and time windows reshape the map
Comparing “per 100,000 residents” to “per 100,000 noncitizens” materially changes state rankings: UCLA’s and Luskin analyses emphasize rates per noncitizen population and find regions like San Francisco’s ICE area had about 217 arrests per 100,000 noncitizens—well below a cited national rate near 1,000 per 100,000 noncitizens—showing that resident‑based and immigrant‑population‑based rates can tell different stories about enforcement intensity [2] [3]. Prison Policy’s state tables use 2024 Census resident estimates, but their authors caution that time slices (e.g., Jan–May vs May–Oct) and incomplete capture of CBP or other agency arrests require care when interpreting cross‑state comparisons [6] [1].
3. Geography, policy and local cooperation explain much of the variation
Analysts link high per‑capita arrest rates to states and localities that fully cooperate with federal enforcement or were targeted for intensified “community” operations; Prison Policy and news coverage tie the surge and its concentration to federal policy shifts and local jail partnerships that facilitated transfers, producing over 1,000 arrests a day and concentrating activity in states like Texas, Florida and California [1] [7]. The Washington Post documents a tactical shift from jail transfers toward at‑large community arrests, a change that amplified arrest counts in places where ICE ramped up street‑level operations [8].
4. Data caveats: FOIA releases, matching problems, and hidden totals
Available analyses rely on ICE data assembled through FOIA and processed by projects like the Deportation Data Project and Vera, but those releases stop at mid‑October 2025 in the public datasets used by many reporters, and some datasets lack linked identifiers or omit CBP actions, meaning statewide tallies and rates can be incomplete or inconsistently assigned to state locations [9] [6] [10]. Reporting also highlights methodological differences—rolling averages, definition of “area of responsibility,” and whether arrests out of local jails are separated from community arrests—that can shift a state’s apparent rate [1] [3].
5. Conflicting framings and institutional incentives to watch for
Advocacy groups and researchers emphasize how local jail cooperation inflates ICE’s reach and that a growing share of those arrested had no criminal record, an emphasis that supports calls to limit state collaboration or expand oversight [1] [11]. At the same time, pro‑enforcement narratives and some commercial summaries focus on raw leadership by states like Texas and Florida and on resource needs for removal operations; both framings reflect differing agendas—accountability versus operational capacity—that shape which rates and slices of the data are amplified [7] [4].
6. Bottom line for comparing states in 2025
The simplest, defensible comparison is that per‑resident ICE arrest rates in early‑to‑mid 2025 were highest in Texas and elevated in several Southern and Sun Belt states, while some West Coast areas registered among the lowest rates when adjusted for immigrant populations; precise rankings depend on whether one uses resident vs noncitizen denominators, which months are included, and how jail‑based versus community arrests are counted, and public datasets through mid‑October 2025 remain the best available source for these comparisons [1] [2] [3] [9].