How do ICE detainee counts compare to historical peaks and what drove the increases in 2024–2026?
Executive summary
ICE-held populations hit unprecedented levels in 2025–early 2026, surpassing prior peaks such as August 2019 and reaching daily and snapshot counts that approached the system’s expanded capacity—recording roughly 68,990 people in custody on January 7, 2026, per new reporting [1] [2]. This surge reflects a policy-driven expansion of arrests, detention capacity, and mandatory detention rules that disproportionately swept in people without criminal convictions, even as data quality and reporting practices complicate precise historical comparisons [3] [2] [4].
1. Where 2024–2026 sit in historical context
Detention populations rose steadily from roughly 25,000 at the end of FY2022 to over 37,000 by the end of FY2024 and about 39,000 by January 2025, then climbed sharply through 2025 to levels that, by mid-October 2025, exceeded the previous all-time daily peak in August 2019 [5] [1]. Major outlets and analysts reported counts of roughly 61,000 in late August 2025 and estimates that the system could grow to well over 100,000 beds if planned expansions completed—figures that show 2025–early 2026 as an historic spike rather than a marginal uptick [6] [3].
2. Who is driving the increase: the rise of non‑criminal detainees
A striking feature of the 2024–2026 surge is the composition change: most recent data indicate that growth has been overwhelmingly among people without criminal convictions, with non‑criminal detainees responsible for the bulk of FY2026 increases—one analysis put the figure at roughly 72–92 percent of growth depending on the timeframe examined [2]. Reports from advocacy groups and research organizations likewise document that non‑criminal populations began to outnumber those detained for criminal convictions as policies tightened and bond and release pathways were narrowed [7] [3].
3. Policy, funding and operational levers that expanded detention
The jump in detainees followed a coordinated set of policy and budgetary choices: enforcement priorities elevated immigration detention, reconciliation funding and administrative plans expanded bed capacity, and rules limiting bond or parole and broadening mandatory detention increased the pool of people subject to custodial stays [3] [7]. ICE’s own dashboards and custody-management descriptions show an agency preparing to manage a larger and more geographically dispersed detained population, and ICE has emphasized efforts to house people near arrest locations and to monitor health and standards even as numbers rose [4] [8].
4. Geography, facilities and operational tactics
The system’s growth relied heavily on scaling up nontraditional and private facilities in states like Texas and Louisiana, with particular large sites—such as El Paso facilities—housing thousands daily, and with networks of contracting and state partners enabling rapid expansion of bedspace [6] [9]. Analysts warn that filling new capacity became a policy tool in itself—detention as leverage in removal proceedings—rather than solely a response to acute criminal flight risks, an interpretation advanced by the American Immigration Council and National Immigration Forum [3] [7].
5. Human costs, scrutiny and alternative views
Record detention levels coincided with a sharp rise in deaths in custody and intensive scrutiny from journalists and watchdogs: 2025 was described as ICE’s deadliest year in two decades in reporting that tracked dozens of in‑custody deaths as enforcement ramped up [10]. Advocates characterize the spike as an engineered expansion with humanitarian and legal consequences, while ICE emphasizes compliance with detention standards and operational necessity to enforce removals—both perspectives rest on overlapping data but diverge on policy framing [8] [3].
6. Data limits, interpretation caveats and unresolved questions
Comparisons across years are complicated by changes in reporting metrics (midnight counts versus daily averages), the use of nontraditional facilities, and gaps in publicly released identifiers and FOIA data that researchers note; these constraints mean exact tallies and pathway tracing require caution even as trends are clear [1] [11]. Multiple independent trackers (Vera, TRAC, Deportation Data Project) converge on the narrative of an unprecedented rise in 2025–2026, but acknowledging reporting idiosyncrasies and the shifting definition of who counts as “in ICE custody” is essential to responsible analysis [1] [11].