How do opinions of ICE differ between registered voters and all adults across major polls in 2025–2026?
Executive summary
Across multiple national surveys in late 2025–January 2026, registered/likely voter samples consistently show stronger negative judgments of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) than samples described as “all adults” or “Americans,” with voter disapproval commonly clustered in the high‑50s to low‑60s percent range versus adult/societal polls that report disapproval more often in the low‑50s or high‑30s depending on the survey and question wording (Quinnipiac; YouGov; New York Times/Siena; Data for Progress) [1] [2] [3] [4]. The gap is not uniform because question wording, sample frames and weighting differ, but the consistent pattern is: voters—especially likely/registered voters—report steeper declines in ICE favorability and higher rates saying enforcement has “gone too far,” while adult samples show broad disapproval but slightly softer numbers and clearer partisan polarization [1] [5] [6].
1. Registered voters: steeper disapproval and “tactics gone too far”
Polls that focus on registered or likely voters show a notably negative picture of ICE in 2025–early 2026: Quinnipiac reported 57% of voters disapprove of how ICE enforces immigration laws (40% approve) and found 82% of voters had seen the Minneapolis shooting video with 53% saying the shooting was not justified—measures that correlate with lower ICE approval among voters [1]. A New York Times/Siena poll of 1,625 registered voters found 63% disapproved of how ICE was handling its job and 61% of voters said ICE’s tactics “had gone too far,” figures higher than many “all adults” estimates and reflective of elevated salience among active voters [3] [7]. Data for Progress’ likely‑voter survey likewise put ICE underwater among voters (42% favorable, 51% unfavorable), documenting a sharp fall from early 2025 when favorability briefly ran positive after the new administration took office [4].
2. All adults: broad disapproval, but more variance by poll method
Surveys sampling “all adults” show majorities or pluralities unfavorable toward ICE but with more variation based on platform and question framing: YouGov found a majority of Americans disapproved of ICE in October 2025 (53% disapprove, 39% approve) and similar YouGov/Economist polling in January 2026 showed a rise in support for abolishing ICE and that more Americans judged the Minneapolis shooting unjustified, signaling broader societal discontent [2] [8]. Pew’s Aug. 2025 agency ratings highlighted deep polarization—views of ICE are “deeply polarized” across the adult population, underscoring that overall adult numbers mask sharp partisan divides [6]. Methodological notes in the polling (YouGov/Economist and Pew) alert readers that online opt‑in panels and weighting decisions can shift estimates relative to telephone or live‑interviewer samples [5] [6].
3. Partisan fault lines explain most of the voter/adult gap
What looks like a voter vs. adult divide is largely an artifact of partisan composition: Republicans overwhelmingly approve of ICE while Democrats overwhelmingly disapprove, so samples weighted toward voters—where turnout and partisan composition differ from the general adult population—can magnify disapproval if they capture more motivated Democratic voters or independents leaning Democratic on immigration (Quinnipiac; Quinnipiac June; KFF) [1] [9] [10]. Quinnipiac’s cross‑tabs show Republicans approving ICE by wide margins (e.g., 84% approve in one release) while Democrats score ICE at net deeply negative—an asymmetry that explains much of the aggregate swings across sample frames [1] [9]. KFF’s immigrant voter survey likewise finds partisan splits among immigrant voters on whether enforcement is “too tough” (Democrats) versus “not tough enough” or “about right” (many Republicans), illustrating the ideological core of the gap [10].
4. Why methodological choices amplify differences between voters and adults
Polls of registered/likely voters routinely weight for turnout, recalled 2024 vote, and other indicators that can concentrate views of politically engaged subgroups; surveys of “all adults” employ broader demographic weighting and sometimes include non‑registered residents who are less politically engaged—producing softer overall disapproval numbers in some cases (YouGov methodology; Data for Progress methodology; Pew commentary) [5] [4] [6]. Question wording matters too: asking about “job performance,” “tactics,” or support for “abolishing ICE” produces different magnitudes of opposition even within the same polling house, so cross‑poll comparisons must account for these design differences [2] [8] [11].
5. Bottom line: both groups are negative but voters more so, driven by polarization
The convergent story across major 2025–2026 polling is straightforward: ICE’s public standing is broadly diminished among both registered voters and all adults, but registered/likely‑voter samples tend to show larger negatives—often in the high‑50s to low‑60s disapproval range—while adult samples commonly register majority disapproval or narrower negative margins depending on wording and method [1] [3] [2] [4]. The critical driver is partisan sorting—Republican support versus Democratic opposition—meaning the voter/adult gap is less about a mysterious “voter psychology” and more about which partisan blocs are concentrated in each sample and how pollsters phrase the question [1] [6] [10]. Where reporting goes beyond these polls to claim a uniform national collapse in support, the underlying data actually show polarity and variability that turn on methodology and partisan composition [4] [5].