How have poll numbers about ICE changed since 2018 across major polling firms?
Executive summary
Public sentiment toward U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has shifted noticeably since 2018: favorability has declined and support for major changes — including abolition or curbs on enforcement tactics — has grown in several major polls [1][2]. The change is recent and sharpest around incidents of high-profile enforcement, with January 2026 polling showing large majorities saying ICE tactics have gone too far or expressing disapproval of how ICE is enforcing immigration laws [3][4][5].
1. Rising unfavorable ratings and dwindling approval: the broad picture
Multiple national polls in January 2026 show a clear tilt toward unfavorable views of ICE, with YouGov reporting about half (52%) of Americans holding somewhat or very unfavorable opinions of the agency [6] and Data for Progress noting a steady decline in voter favorability over the course of President Trump’s second term [1]; Quinnipiac and New York Times/Siena polls similarly found majorities disapproving of how ICE is enforcing laws or that tactics have “gone too far” [5][4].
2. Abolish ICE: growing support but contested meanings
Support for abolishing ICE has increased over time in several trackers: YouGov/Economist and other polling show historic climbs from the roughly 25–33% range in 2018–2019 to higher levels into 2025–26, with some surveys showing plurality or near-majority support for abolition depending on question wording [6][7][8]; Data for Progress and Civiqs likewise report rising backing tied to high-profile incidents, although polls differ on whether respondents understand “abolish ICE” to mean replacing the agency with another body or simply ending current practices [1][2].
3. Events drive short-term spikes in criticism
The January 2026 shooting in Minneapolis and related media attention produced sharp, immediate shifts: several polls taken in the days after the incident recorded surges in unfavorable views, higher percentages saying ICE tactics are too forceful, and increases in calls to end mass raids [9][10][11]. Reuters/Ipsos and AP-NORC found that awareness of the incident was near-universal among respondents and that it depressed approval of immigration enforcement broadly [12][9].
4. Partisan polarization and emerging cracks among Republicans
Longstanding partisan divides persist: Republican approval of ICE historically remains high, while Democrats and many independents disapprove — Quinnipiac documented 84% Republican approval in one January 2026 release even as Democrats and independents largely disapproved [5][13]. But multiple outlets reported an unusual uptick in Republican unease after the Minneapolis shooting, noting that polls like NYT/Siena found nearly one in five Republicans saying ICE tactics went too far and Reuters/Ipsos found some GOP backers wary of aggressive enforcement [3][12].
5. Variation by question wording and pollster methodology
Trends are consistent, but magnitudes vary: YouGov, Economist, Civiqs, Quinnipiac, AP‑NORC, CBS/YouGov, NYT/Siena, Data for Progress and others deliver similar directional signals, yet differences in sample frames, online panels versus live-interview methods, and whether polls specify that “abolish” implies replacement produce variation in reported levels of support or disapproval [6][7][1][5]. Reporting outlets often emphasize the largest swings, which can obscure steady declines recorded across multiple firms.
6. Competing narratives, agendas, and what the polls don’t settle
Advocacy groups and outlets frame the data to support policy aims: the ACLU highlights opposition to mass raids and strong rights to record ICE [11], progressive outlets emphasize rising “abolish ICE” support [2], while conservative-leaning coverage underscores persistent Republican backing and crime-frame arguments that keep enforcement popular with core GOP voters [13][12]. The polls do not, on their own, resolve what concrete policy changes the public prefers in place of ICE or how durable the January 2026 spikes will be once attention fades; the surveyed trendlines indicate movement but leave open whether midterm or legislative outcomes will follow [1][9].
Conclusion: a directional realignment, not a uniform collapse
Since 2018, major polling firms collectively show ICE’s public standing deteriorating, with notable jumps in disapproval and support for substantive reform or abolition in early 2026 after highly publicized enforcement incidents; however, the intensity and interpretation of that shift depend on question wording, partisanship, and the timing of events, and the polls do not definitively show a permanent collapse of support across all constituencies [6][5][3][1].