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Fact check: How much do illigeal aliens cost taxpayers
Executive Summary
The materials present conflicting claims: some sources assert that undocumented immigrants impose net costs on taxpayers through healthcare and public services, while others calculate substantial tax contributions and warn that deportations would damage the broader economy. Recent figures cited range from a net cost of $9.8 billion at state and local levels in 2023 to roughly $97–100 billion in taxes paid by undocumented people in 2022; both sets of figures appear in the provided analyses and reflect different methodologies and scopes [1] [2] [3].
1. The Claim That Illegal Immigrants Drive Rising State Costs — What the Data Say
Several pieces assert rapidly rising state-level expenditures for services tied to undocumented residents, notably a Minnesota example where projected costs for providing free healthcare jumped from $196 million to $550 million, which producers framed as a strain on taxpayers [4]. This claim is narrow in scope: it focuses on one state program and a selected time window, making it a localized cost estimate rather than a nationwide burden metric. Local program expansions and policy choices—not merely population counts—drive such sudden budget increases, so extrapolating a single-state spike to a national taxpayer burden is methodologically risky [4].
2. CBO Figure Often Cited — A Modest Net Cost at State and Local Levels
A Congressional Budget Office (CBO) finding in the provided analyses puts the net cost to state and local governments at $9.8 billion in 2023, a figure used by policymakers advocating for border security and reduced immigration [1]. That number reflects net fiscal balances at state and local levels and intentionally excludes federal fiscal flows such as payroll taxes and some benefit programs. Interpreters who emphasize this figure typically advance policy arguments about local fiscal pressure, but the limited scope and accounting choices mean it cannot alone determine the total fiscal footprint of undocumented immigration [1].
3. Tax Contributions Often Overlooked — Nearly $97–100 Billion Reported for 2022
Multiple analyses in the packet report that people in the country without legal status paid roughly $97–100 billion in combined federal, state, and local taxes in 2022, and that about $25.7 billion was credited to Social Security despite many being ineligible for benefits [2] [3]. These estimates underline the contradictory fiscal role undocumented workers play: they fund entitlement systems to which they often cannot fully claim benefits. Advocates highlight this tax intake to argue undocumented immigrants are net contributors to public coffers at the federal level, despite localized cost pressures [2] [3].
4. Economic Cost of Mass Deportations — Macro Impacts and Job Loss Risks
Analyses of large-scale deportation scenarios project severe macroeconomic harm: one study estimates deportations could eliminate nearly 6 million jobs, with major impact industries and states identified, while another projects a $1.1–$1.7 trillion GDP loss and substantial reductions in labor force size and growth [5] [6]. These projections emphasize indirect fiscal effects—lost tax revenue, higher prices, and disrupted supply chains—that are absent from narrow fiscal accounting. Proponents of stricter enforcement often challenge assumptions about substitutability of labor and dynamic economic responses, making the full economic trade-offs fiercely contested [5] [6].
5. Reconciling the Numbers — Why Estimates Diverge Widely
The dataset shows divergence primarily because studies adopt different boundaries, time frames, and accounting rules: some focus on state and local budgets [1], others tally tax payments at all government levels [2] [3], and some model hypothetical policy actions like mass deportations with macroeconomic feedbacks [5] [6]. Each framing is valid for different policy questions: fiscal pressure on local hospitals versus net federal fiscal balances versus long-run GDP impacts. Comparing them directly without noting scope and assumptions produces misleading conclusions [4] [2] [1] [6].
6. Who Emphasizes Which Figures — Political Framing and Possible Agendas
The materials show clear patterning of source emphasis: figures of rising local costs and CBO net costs are invoked by voices urging border security and reduced public benefit access [4] [1], while tax-contribution tallies and economic-impact forecasts are cited by groups warning about economic harm from deportations and advocating integration or regularization [2] [3] [6]. Both sides selectively deploy the figures that support their policy goals, and the differing publication dates—ranging from December 2024 through October 2025—reflect evolving data and political context [2] [7].
7. Bottom Line for Policymakers and Taxpayers — What Is Established?
From the provided analyses, the best-supported findings are that undocumented immigrants both pay tens of billions in taxes annually and can produce localized fiscal costs for specific services, with a CBO-estimated $9.8 billion net cost at state and local levels in 2023, and $97–100 billion in tax payments in 2022 reported in other studies [1] [2] [3]. Any honest fiscal assessment must integrate federal receipts, local expenditures, and broader economic feedbacks; single-number claims are incomplete without methodological context, and policy decisions should be based on comprehensive, comparable accounting rather than isolated figures [1] [2] [6].