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Fact check: Have illegal border crossings increased in past year
Executive Summary
Official federal and research-group data show illegal border crossings fell sharply from 2023 into 2024 and plunged further in fiscal 2025, reversing earlier peaks; government counts and independent analyses report declines measured in the hundreds of thousands to millions depending on the metric and period [1] [2] [3]. Differences in how encounters, apprehensions, and the foreign‑born population are counted explain much of the dispute between claims that crossings “increased” versus the documented large decreases in 2024–2025 [4] [5].
1. Bold claim inventory: who says what and why it matters
Multiple clear claims drive the debate: that crossings increased, that they decreased sharply, and that large numbers of noncitizens have left the U.S. The record assembled here shows three distinct assertions — a sharp drop in migrant encounters in 2024, a fall in Border Patrol apprehensions and overall encounters in fiscal 2025 to multidecade lows, and a reported reduction in the foreign‑born population — each drawing on different metrics with political implications [4] [2] [5]. Understanding which metric is cited matters more than partisan labels because each metric answers a different question about migration flows and enforcement outcomes [6].
2. What federal and research data say about encounters and apprehensions
Customs and Border Protection encounter data and independent analyses document declines through 2024 and into fiscal 2025. The Migration Policy Institute reported 2.1 million Southwest border encounters in FY2024, a 14% decline from FY2023, and CBP data show Border Patrol apprehensions between ports fell 25% from 2023 to 2024, while ports‑of‑entry encounters rose, signaling a shift in where migrants are encountered rather than an increase overall [1] [6]. Multiple datasets converge on a downward trajectory through 2024 even as encounter mix changed [1].
3. The dramatic 2025 drop and multidecade context
Fiscal 2025 data released in October 2025 show apprehensions at the Southwest border around 237,000–238,000, described as the lowest level since 1970 and a large decline from over 1.5 million in FY2024 by some federal reports [2] [7] [3]. These figures indicate an exceptionally steep decline year‑over‑year and place 2025 at an historical low, a fact cited widely by government and media outlets. The magnitude of change between FY2024 and FY2025 is the salient empirical fact shaping recent claims [3].
4. Shifts in where migrants are encountered — ports versus between ports
Data show a redistribution of encounters: between‑ports apprehensions decreased while encounters at ports of entry increased markedly in 2024, with ports‑entry encounters rising 41% from 2023 to 2024 according to CBP analyses. This pattern reflects operational shifts and policy changes that affect whether crossings are recorded as illegal entries between ports or as processing events at established entry points, complicating simple “increase” or “decrease” narratives about illegal crossings [6] [4].
5. Departures, self‑deportations and population surveys — another angle
The Department of Homeland Security reported more than 2 million noncitizens left the U.S. in under 250 days (about 1.6 million “self‑deported” plus 400,000 removals), and the Current Population Survey analysis found the foreign‑born population fell by 2.2 million January–July 2025, with significant declines among noncitizen Latin Americans [8] [5]. These measures capture net changes in population rather than first‑contact crossings; they corroborate a decline in net presence but do not by themselves measure illegal crossings at the border [5].
6. How dates and definitions reshape conclusions
The apparent contradiction between claims of increases and the documented declines stems largely from differences in time windows (monthly vs. fiscal year vs. calendar year), definitions (encounters, apprehensions, removals, population change), and data lags. For example, a sharp month‑to‑month fall in December 2024 cited by Pew contrasts with annual totals showing FY2024 still high relative to earlier years, then followed by the FY2025 collapse; contextualizing the time frame is essential [4] [1] [2].
7. Political framing and incentives behind competing narratives
Different actors emphasize figures that bolster policy goals: enforcement agencies highlight removals and 2025 declines to argue effectiveness, while opponents emphasize earlier peaks in 2023–2024 or localized increases to critique policy. Each side selectively cites metrics that best support its position. Readers should expect strategic emphasis and consult multiple measures — encounters, apprehensions between and at ports, removals, and population surveys — to get the full picture [3] [8] [6].
8. Bottom line and key uncertainties to watch next
The best reading of the available recent data is that illegal border crossings declined sharply from 2023 into 2024 and plunged further in fiscal 2025 to multidecade lows, while departures and population surveys show a reduced foreign‑born population through mid‑2025 [1] [2] [5]. Remaining uncertainties include whether declines reflect durable behavioral change, enforcement posture, or short‑term deterrence, and how future policy shifts or regional conditions will affect flows. Future monthly and fiscal reports will determine whether 2025 represents a new baseline or a temporary trough [6] [7].