Fact check: How much did illegal immagrants pay in taxes in 2023

1. Extracting the headline claims that drive the debate

Analysts and outlets make three distinct headline claims: a state-specific claim that undocumented immigrants in Oregon paid nearly $700 million in taxes in 2023 and broader statements that immigrants nationally paid nearly $652 billion in 2023, alongside organizational estimates that households led by undocumented immigrants paid $89.8 billion in total taxes for 2023. A separate prior-year estimate cited $96.7–$100 billion for 2022, and summaries emphasize contributions to Social Security and Medicare and the share of taxes flowing to programs undocumented people largely cannot access ^{[2] [3] [1]}. These claims frame the discussion but are not uniform in scope or definition ^[3].

2. What the most recent sources actually say and how they differ

The most recent organizational report in the dataset, from the American Immigration Council (August 20, 2025 reporting on 2023), places $89.8 billion in taxes paid by households led by undocumented immigrants in 2023, broken into $33.9 billion state and local and $55.8 billion federal contributions ^[1]. Axios’ March 2025 piece highlights Oregon’s nearly $700 million contribution in 2023 and cites a separate nationwide aggregate of $652 billion, which appears to combine broader immigrant contributions rather than strictly undocumented-only totals ^[2]. Bloomberg’s August 2024 analysis offered a near-$100 billion figure for 2022 and detailed program-level flows to Social Security and Medicare ^[3].

3. How definitions and populations change the numbers dramatically

Estimates diverge because sources use different populations: some count all immigrants (documented and undocumented), others focus exclusively on undocumented households, and a few present state-level snapshots. Methodological choices—whether counting employer withholding from undocumented workers, individual taxpayer identification number (ITIN) filings, payroll taxes paid on wages, or indirect consumption taxes—produce substantial variance. The Bloomberg 2022 figure emphasized payroll contributions to entitlement programs, while the American Immigration Council quantified household tax burdens in 2023 across federal, state, and local levels ^{[3] [1]}. These definitional shifts explain most of the numeric spread.

4. Timing, continuity, and the role of prior-year benchmarks

Several sources reference 2022 estimates as context—Bloomberg’s near-$100 billion for 2022 and another mid-2022/2023 aggregate of roughly $96.7–$100 billion—while the American Immigration Council and Axios report figures labeled for 2023 ^{[3] [4] [1] [2]}. When analysts project or backcast, year-to-year changes in employment, wage levels, tax law, and enforcement can produce sizeable swings. The dataset shows that more recent publications ^[5] attempt to refine 2023 totals, but they still rely on differing baseline data and assumptions drawn from earlier-year tax records and modeling ^{[1] [2] [3]}.

5. State snapshots versus national aggregation: apples and oranges

The Oregon figure cited by Axios—nearly $700 million in 2023—is a state-level snapshot that should not be extrapolated linearly to a national total without understanding per-capita undocumented population sizes and economic structures ^[2]. Conversely, the higher nationwide aggregates (from hundreds of billions to $652 billion) appear to mix categories of immigrant taxpayers and possibly include documented immigrants or broader economic tax incidence. The American Immigration Council’s $89.8 billion is explicitly for households led by undocumented immigrants and is the clearest single-source national figure in the provided set, making it most comparable across federal, state, and local tax categories ^[1].

6. What the provided evidence omits and why that matters for policy debates

The supplied sources do not present a single standardized methodology, nor do they reconcile overlapping datasets or control for undocumented immigrants’ heterogeneous labor-market participation, ITIN filings, or under-the-table cash earnings that avoid withholding. They also do not uniformly adjust for taxes paid that undocumented people cannot access, nor do they fully account for state-by-state enforcement differences. These omissions mean headline numbers can be framed to support contrasting policy positions—either emphasizing fiscal contribution or fiscal cost—without a consensus figure rooted in a unified data methodology ^{[3] [2] [1]}.

7. Bottom line: reconciling the numbers and answering the original question

Based on the provided analyses, the most defensible single figure for taxes paid by households led by undocumented immigrants in 2023 is $89.8 billion (American Immigration Council, Aug 2025), while state-level and broader immigrant aggregates vary—Oregon’s nearly $700 million in 2023 and other reports citing higher national totals reflect different populations and methods ^{[1] [2] [3]}. A precise universal figure for “illegal immigrants” taxes in 2023 cannot be asserted from these sources alone without harmonizing definitions and datasets; policymakers should treat the $89.8 billion figure as the clearest documented national estimate in this packet and view larger aggregates with caution. ^{[1] [2] [3]}