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Fact check: How do independent/unaffiliated voter numbers compare across states since 2020?
Executive Summary
Independent and unaffiliated voter registration and turnout rose noticeably after 2020, with national shares and state-by-state concentrations diverging: independents formed the plurality or largest group in several states and accounted for roughly a third of the 2024 electorate, while state reporting shows wide variation—Alaska topped the list with a majority unaffiliated in reported data. Analysts link this shift to demographic patterns among independents and to state primary rules that shape registration choices, producing different partisan dynamics across states [1] [2] [3].
1. A growing bloc that changed the 2024 map
Independent voters expanded their influence in 2024, with exit-poll based reporting showing independents accounted for about 34% of the presidential vote, surpassing Democrats’ share and matching Republicans’ share in Edison Research and related summaries [2] [4]. This shift marks a notable departure from earlier cycles where party-affiliated voters tended to dominate turnout composition; analysts characterize 2024 as the first time independents’ share exceeded one major party since Edison’s exit polling began in 2004 [4]. The data indicate independents did not uniformly break for one candidate: they favored the Democratic ticket in reported exit polling while also showing a stronger-than-expected Republican performance compared with 2020, reflecting a heterogeneous and consequential electorate [5].
2. State-by-state registration: wide variation and outsize pockets
State registration statistics compiled through 2024–2025 display substantial variation in unaffiliated voter shares. Aggregated figures reported as of October 2022 put 35.3 million registered independents across reporting states, roughly 28.6% of the electorate, with independents being the largest registration category in nine states and Alaska showing a striking 58.08% unaffiliated rate [1]. Later state scorecards and registration databases updated through August 2025 reaffirm that the distribution is uneven—some states like Alaska and Arkansas exhibit unusually high independent percentages while many others remain dominated by party-affiliated registrants—highlighting how local institutional factors and political cultures produce diverse registration landscapes [6].
3. Primary rules shape registration and identity choices
Differences in primary election rules—closed, semi-closed, or open primaries—affect whether voters register with a party or remain unaffiliated. State-by-state summaries show that primary access and partisan incentives influence registration behavior: voters in states with closed primaries face trade-offs between staying unaffiliated and preserving access to nomination contests, while open primary states reduce the cost of remaining unaffiliated [6] [3]. Empirical work probing Florida and North Carolina finds that a substantial portion of unaffiliated registrants identify as political independents rather than concealed partisans; primary rules can therefore both reflect and reinforce identity choices, not merely administrative quirks [7].
4. Who are independents? Demographics and turnout patterns matter
Surveys and polls from 2024 emphasize demographic skews among independents: they trend younger, with strong representation from Generation Z and Millennials, and a majority without a college degree, features that shape issue priorities and turnout behavior [8]. Exit polling and post-election analyses indicate independents’ vote choices were split but decisive; independent support tilted toward the Democratic ticket in reported exit polls, though the Republican share among independents rose compared with 2020 [5]. The combination of youth, education profile, and swing behavior makes independents unpredictable by traditional partisan metrics and elevated their influence in 2024’s electoral arithmetic [8] [5].
5. Reconciling registration numbers and electoral impact—what’s missing and why it matters
State registration counts capture formal affiliation but do not fully predict voting behavior—registration trends and turnout effects diverge. The October 2022 registration snapshot and 2024–2025 updates show rising unaffiliated registration in many places, yet exit polling and turnout analysis demonstrate that unaffiliated voters’ electoral weight depends on turnout rates, candidate appeal, and primary access rules that shape who shows up and how they vote [1] [4] [6]. Studies noting identity-driven unaffiliated registration suggest aggregate numbers understate heterogeneity: some unaffiliated voters are soft partisans avoiding labels for strategic or identity reasons, while others are genuine independents whose preferences shift election-to-election [7]. The result is a national picture of growing unaffiliated registration paired with complex, state-specific effects on outcomes, requiring both registration and behavioral data to understand near-term political implications [6] [2].