India
Executive summary
India in early 2026 presents a study in pragmatic statecraft: a growth trajectory that many outlets describe as robust and resilient, paired with an outward-looking “global playbook” that prioritizes economic interest over rigid alliances while navigating rising friction with the United States over Russian oil purchases [1] [2] [3].
1. Economic resilience after a turbulent year
Analysts and Indian officials point to 2025 as a year in which fiscal and monetary policy steadied growth, with forecasts for 2026 showing continued strength—RBI projections and independent commentators put near‑term growth in the 6.5–7.3% range and suggest that India neutralised many global headwinds in 2025 [1] [4]. Bloomberg credits the Modi administration’s economic team for stabilising markets and setting the stage for 2026, framing those policy moves as rescue operations after external shocks [4]. Reporting from major outlets notes ongoing structural initiatives—rail and infrastructure capex, manufacturing incentives and electronics manufacturing approvals—that underpin the growth narrative [5] [6].
2. A pragmatic global playbook, not bloc politics
The Economic Times reports that India’s 2026 foreign policy is consciously pragmatic and interest‑based, favouring diversified trade and engagement across geopolitical divides rather than deep alignments, a posture intended to protect economic resilience and strategic autonomy [2]. This approach reflects repeated messaging across Indian outlets that New Delhi will evaluate partnerships issue‑by‑issue and balance economic openness with security concerns [2] [7].
3. Energy choices have become a diplomatic flashpoint
India’s procurement of Russian crude—part of its energy diversification strategy—has provoked a direct response from Washington: President Donald Trump warned that the US could raise tariffs on India if New Delhi does not curb purchases of Russian oil, turning energy trade into a potential lever in bilateral talks [3]. Reuters coverage quotes markets reacting to the threat, including a drop in IT stocks over worries the dispute could slow a trade deal [3].
4. Commercial shifts in the oil trade and corporate moves
Market dynamics are changing within India’s oil sector: Reliance Industries signalled it does not expect Russian crude deliveries in January 2026, a shift that Reuters says will likely reduce Indian imports of Russian oil to their lowest levels in years and leave most Russian cargoes to state refiners and Nayara Energy [8]. That corporate retrenchment complicates the diplomatic standoff by showing private actors can, and do, alter trade flows independently of government strategy [8].
5. Domestic politics, governance and day‑to‑day newsflow
Domestic headlines remain a mix of governance, legal battles and civic issues: Indian courts and election bodies continue to litigate electoral roll and citizenship matters while local crises—municipal projects, contamination incidents and law‑and‑order stories—dominate regional coverage, illustrating the competing pressures on New Delhi even as it pursues macroeconomic goals [7] [9] [10]. Major news outlets catalogue these items alongside policy developments, underlying that national strategy unfolds amid active domestic politics [11] [12].
6. Risks, contradictions and what to watch in 2026
The central tension for India in 2026 will be managing contradictions the Economic Times highlights: balancing partnerships with autonomy, safeguarding energy security while avoiding punitive trade measures, and sustaining high growth without allowing global frictions to tip markets [2] [3]. Key indicators to watch include the trajectory of Russian oil deliveries after Reliance’s pause [8], any concrete US tariff moves or trade penalties [3], and domestic economic data and RBI guidance that will test whether the recovery narrative solidifies into lasting momentum [1].