Is California's 45th district a swing district?

1. Why the metrics point to a swing district

Neutral measures and election outcomes line up: the Cook Partisan Voter Index showed only a modest Democratic tilt (D+2 based on 2016/2020 presidential results and D+1 when 2024 is included), placing CA‑45 among the nation’s more evenly balanced districts rather than safely partisan territory ^{[1] [2]}. Recent House results underline that narrowness—Michelle Steel won with about 52.4% in 2022 but the 2024 contest was decided by tiny margins after extensive counting and legal scrutiny, with reporting noting leads of only a few hundred votes at times ^{[3] [4] [5]}.

2. The recent flip and what it reveals

The 2024 general election illustrated volatility: commentators and local outlets described the race as one of the nation’s closest, with heavy investment by both parties and outcomes delayed into recount/contest territory, signaling real competitiveness rather than an outlier result ^{[6] [4] [5]}. That transactional, razor‑thin outcome—coupled with the district being one of the handful that Biden won in 2020 while holding a Republican incumbent in 2024—shows CA‑45 responds to short‑term dynamics ^{[1] [3]}.

3. Demographics and registration that create swing conditions

The district’s electorate is diverse and split: about one‑third of registered voters are Asian American, with Vietnamese Americans making up a substantial bloc (roughly 16%), while registration shows sizable Republican and No Party Preference contingents alongside Democrats—historical registration snapshots found roughly 38% Republicans, 31% Democrats, and about 27% NPP in older analyses—conditions that magnify the power of turnout and candidate fit ^{[6] [7] [8]}.

4. Local factors that amplify competitiveness

Independent redistricting in California produced a map that intentionally respected communities such as Little Saigon, concentrating a politically active Vietnamese‑American electorate and creating a district where localized cultural and candidate ties (for example, a Vietnamese‑American candidate with Little Saigon ties) can tip outcomes by a few hundred votes, making the seat particularly sensitive to campaign intensity and turnout in specific communities ^{[5] [4]}.

5. Counterarguments: why some might not call it a swing seat

Historic contours matter: earlier configurations and prior election cycles at times favored Republicans—Cook historically has shifted and Ballotpedia notes periods when the district was rated safely Republican—so pockets of Republican strength and incumbency advantages have produced non‑competitive elections in other cycles, and national partisan trends can temporarily blunt the district’s swing tendencies ^{[9] [3]}. Additionally, formal partisanship measures showing a small Democratic lean could be interpreted as evidence it is only marginally competitive rather than a perpetual toss‑up ^{[1] [2]}.

6. Practical conclusion: swing in practice, conditional by cycle

In practical terms CA‑45 functions as a swing district: the narrow PVI margin, mixed registration, concentrated influential ethnic blocs, and successive narrow results and party flips make it a target for both parties and highly contestable in most cycles; however, that swing status is conditional—strong incumbents, turnout differentials, or favorable national waves can produce short runs of safe outcomes, so it is swingy by structure and behavior but not immune to episodic partisan drift ^{[1] [2] [4] [5]}.