Is trumps popularity dropping?
Executive summary
Multiple national polls in November 2025 show Donald Trump’s approval slipping from earlier in the year: Gallup reports a November low of 36% approval with 60% disapproval [1], Reuters/Ipsos and several trackers put approval near the low 40s [2] [3], and individual polls such as CNN/SSRS and Emerson report figures in the high 30s to low 40s and describe a downward trend [4] [5]. State and partisan breakdowns show the decline concentrated among independents and some Republican voters while Trump’s strength remains in deeply red states [1] [6].
1. National numbers show a clear downward trajectory
Multiple reputable national surveys conducted in November 2025 register declines in Trump’s job approval compared with earlier in his term: Gallup measured approval at 36% — a second-term low — with disapproval at 60% [1]; Reuters/Ipsos found approval down from 47% at the start of the term and said overall popularity has declined [3]; and aggregators and trackers put the national figure around 41% in late November [2] [7]. These sources converge on a simple fact: national approval is lower now than it was at the beginning of 2025 [1] [3].
2. Who is driving the drop: independents and parts of the GOP
Analysts in these polls point to slippage outside Trump’s core base. Gallup specifically noted weakness among Republicans and independents following the longest government shutdown, economic worries and election setbacks [1]. Reuters linked falling approval to concerns about prices and the “Epstein files” controversy and warned Republicans could be more vulnerable in next year’s congressional contests [3]. The Hill and The Independent likewise reported Republican dissatisfaction and declining approval even among some supporters [8] [9].
3. Policy and events tied to the decline
Reporting ties the dip to concrete events and policy fallout: prolonged government shutdown impacts on benefits and services, consumer concerns about affordability, and high-profile controversies such as the release of Epstein-related materials are cited as drivers of public discontent [3] [10] [8]. Reuters and AP-NORC explicitly link handling of the economy and the shutdown to the lower marks in November [3] [10].
4. Poll-to-poll variation and methodological caveats
Polls disagree on the precise headline number — CNN/SSRS and Gallup differ by several points, and rolling trackers show approval in the 40s while Gallup shows 36% [4] [1] [2]. Nate Silver’s tracker notes that different pollsters measure adults, likely voters or registered voters and that Trump’s popularity has been “hard to peg down” historically [2]. Emerson’s internal analysis also emphasizes a flip in approval since earlier in the year, underscoring both trend and sampling differences [5].
5. Geography: pockets of continued strength
National weakness coexists with strong state-level pockets for Trump. Newsweek’s state-by-state breakdown finds net positive approval in deeply Republican states — Wyoming, Idaho and West Virginia among them — indicating his base remains solid in certain regions even as national numbers fall [6]. That geographic split matters for both governing politics and electoral math [6].
6. Messaging and claims vs. data
Trump has publicly claimed high poll standing; independent fact-checkers report that his claim of having “the highest poll numbers” in his career contradicts contemporaneous polling showing numbers near career lows [11]. Media analyses report his public boasting amid evidence of declining approval, highlighting a gap between political messaging and available polling data [12] [11].
7. What this likely means politically
Journalistic sources tie approval declines to tangible political consequences: Reuters and The Hill warn the slump could make Republicans more vulnerable in upcoming elections, with Gallup noting the combination of election losses and falling approval as a warning sign for GOP prospects [3] [1] [9]. Emerson and other polls also say voters report higher motivation to vote against Trump in certain contests [5].
Limitations and unanswered questions: available sources do not mention long-term recovery scenarios or how intra-GOP dynamics will evolve beyond noting current weakening among some Republican voters (not found in current reporting). Polls differ on sample frame and timing; trend signals are strong but exact percentages vary by pollster [2] [1].
Bottom line: multiple independent polls in November 2025 document a drop in Trump’s popularity compared with earlier in 2025, driven largely by economic concerns, the government shutdown and controversies; the decline is measurable across national surveys though its size varies by poll and remains offset by durable strength in solidly Republican states [1] [3] [6].