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Fact check: What are kamala harris's approval rating in october of 2025, and what would happen if she ran against trump according to recent polling
Executive Summary
In October 2025, available public polling in the provided dataset does not establish a clear, single national approval rating for Vice President Kamala Harris; the most directly cited national measure in these materials is an NBC News item reporting historically low net approval for Harris at -17 (32% positive / 49% negative) dated October 7, 2025 [1]. Recent polls that directly compare Harris with Donald Trump nationally are absent from the provided sources, though a 2024 Siena College poll shows Harris beating Trump handily in New York 58–39, illustrating large state-level variation and the difference between state and national dynamics [2].
1. What the data actually claims about Harris’s standing — a mixed and incomplete picture that matters
The supplied polling excerpts present a fragmented portrait of Vice President Harris’s popularity rather than a single, authoritative October 2025 national approval number. The strongest contemporary claim in the dossier is an NBC News poll dated October 7, 2025, recording Harris at 32% positive and 49% negative for a net approval of -17, framed as historically low in that instrument [1]. Complementary state-focused evidence from a CBS News October 23, 2025 poll shows limited appetite among California voters for Harris to run for president, with fewer than a third of Californians supporting her candidacy and just under half of California Democrats expressing support, which signals weak home-state enthusiasm that could constrain national prospects [3]. These data points together indicate low favorable ratings and limited momentum among core constituencies in October 2025, but they do not alone prove universal national weakness without broader multi-poll aggregation [1] [3].
2. What we do know about head-to-head matchups with Trump — state wins vs national unknowns
Direct evidence for how Harris would fare against Donald Trump in October 2025 is not present in the supplied recent national polling set. The only explicit head-to-head shown is a Siena College 2024 poll in New York where Harris led Trump 58–39, a 19-point margin that reflects state-specific dynamics and issue salience in New York rather than a transferable national result [2]. The absence of contemporary national matchup data in the collection means one cannot state definitively whether a similar margin would hold nationwide in October 2025. The dataset does include broader measures of Trump’s standing—Trump’s job approval runs roughly in the mid-40s in Economist/YouGov and Rasmussen snapshots—showing a President with measurable negatives but not collapse, which suggests national head-to-head outcomes would depend heavily on turnout, third-party dynamics, and issue salience [4] [5].
3. How poll type, timing, and geography change the story — why state and national polls diverge
The differences between the Siena College New York sample and national instruments like NBC or Harvard CAPS-Harris reflect methodological and geographic variance that changes interpretation. State polls can capture urban/suburban compositions and issue priorities—abortion, democracy, and local trust—that favor a candidate like Harris in New York [2]. National polls aggregate diverse electorates where name recognition, recent events, and incumbency effects shape outcomes differently; the NBC poll’s negative net approval for Harris indicates broader national vulnerability that a single favorable state poll cannot offset [1]. The provided materials also underscore temporal effects: a 2024 state poll that showed a sizable lead does not predict outcomes after shifts in 2025 political dynamics, meaning comparisons across years and geographies require caution [2] [1].
4. What competing narratives and agendas are visible in the available sources
The sources in the dataset show competing narratives: one emphasizes Harris strength in specific contexts (Siena College’s 2024 New York head-to-head) while others highlight enduring weaknesses (NBC’s October 7, 2025 negative net approval and CBS’s October 23, 2025 home-state hesitation) [2] [1] [3]. These differing framings align with likely partisan agendas: a state poll with a large Democratic-leaning sample can be used to argue electability, whereas national negative approval numbers are leveraged to argue unfitness or lack of momentum. The dataset lacks national, nonpartisan matchup polls between Harris and Trump in October 2025, leaving room for confirmation bias if observers cherry-pick favorable or unfavorable items without acknowledging coverage gaps [2] [1] [3].
5. Bottom line: what can and cannot be concluded, and what to watch next
Based strictly on the supplied material, one can conclude that Kamala Harris faced significant negative net approval in early October 2025 according to NBC’s October 7 instrument and that state-level polling (New York, 2024) shows she can lead Trump in favorable terrain, but the data do not permit a definitive national October 2025 head-to-head projection against Trump [1] [2]. Observers should look for updated national matchup polls, multi-poll aggregates, and turnout-modeled forecasts to resolve this gap; until then, any firm claim that Harris would decisively beat or lose to Trump in October 2025 exceeds the evidence provided [4] [5].