What are the key issues driving Reform party support in the 2025 election?
Executive summary
Reform UK’s 2025 support is driven primarily by strong voter concern about immigration and asylum, law-and-order/crime messages, and opposition to net-zero and “woke” policies — a coalition that spans older voters, disaffected workers and some younger contrarian groups (polling and segmentation research cited) [1] [2] [3]. At the same time, the party’s appeal is tested by scandals, infighting and questions about governing competence — dynamics that analysts say are already eroding support in polls and local councils [4] [5] [6].
1. Immigration and asylum: the defining wedge issue
Reform’s polling and internal segmentation show immigration and asylum as the single sharpest splitter across its supporters: majorities of hardline voters list it as a top issue while other Reform sub-groups rate it lower, indicating the party’s capacity to unite different cohorts by fronting tough migration positions [1]. Commentators and party materials confirm that fiery rhetoric against illegal immigrants has been central to the surge in popularity [2].
2. Crime and “lawless Britain”: tapping public unease
Crime is consistently presented by Reform as a core issue and one that resonates with many of its backers; commentators argue the party’s “Lawless Britain” messaging has translated into political traction by aligning with public concerns or viral crime coverage even where long-term crime trends may differ [3]. LabourList and other outlets note Reform is using crime alongside other cultural issues to threaten both Labour and the Conservatives electorally [3].
3. Economy, taxes and small‑business positioning
Reform has attempted to broaden its pitch beyond culture to economic populism and small‑state, small‑business branding — at times promising large tax cuts and pledging efficiency savings in councils — though leaders have rowed back on some headline commitments such as earlier £90bn tax-cut pledges, raising questions about credibility and policy detail [7] [2]. Reuters reports the party is trying to model cost-cutting after high-profile tech figures while lacking prior government experience [2].
4. Culture wars: “woke” policies and abortion among the hooks
Opposition to “woke” policies and positioning on social issues (including abortion in debate coverage) form another visible attractor for parts of Reform’s coalition. Commentators argue these cultural themes let the party outflank rivals on identity and values arguments, helping knit together economic and socially conservative strands of support [3] [8].
5. A broad but fractious coalition — strengths and fault lines
Hope Not Hate / Focaldata segmentation cited by The Guardian finds Reform voters include older retirees, struggling workers, frustrated graduates and a segment of contrarian youth — a diverse coalition united on some issues (immigration, crime) but divided on others [1]. Analysts warn that this “slapdash” mix may be hard to hold together in government, exposing the party to both internal tensions and electoral volatility [8] [1].
6. Governing test: local councils, service delivery and competence
Having won many local seats, Reform officials now confront mundane governance tasks — local taxes, refuse collection, potholes — which serve as a credibility test. Reporting highlights expulsions, suspensions and messy council politics in places like Kent and Cornwall that opponents say show the party struggles to convert protest support into reliable administration [2] [5] [6].
7. Scandals and internal discipline are eroding momentum
Multiple outlets note scandals — resignations, suspensions for racist posts, and the jailing of a former Welsh leader for taking payments tied to pro‑Russian messaging — alongside high‑profile media rows. Poll tracking shows recent drops in Reform support tied to these controversies, suggesting reputational damage is already biting [4] [5] [9].
8. Media strategy, threats and friction with press
Reform has reacted aggressively to negative coverage — legal warnings and demands — which some journalists call “Trumpian” and which the party frames as defending reputation; this adversarial stance may strengthen core supporters but risks alienating undecided voters and increasing scrutiny [10]. The party also invited outlets to verify its claimed membership/ticker data after public disputes over numbers [9].
9. Competing narratives: protest movement vs. government‑ready party
Supporters and sympathetic commentators portray Reform as a necessary insurgent giving voice to neglected grievances (immigration, crime, economic frustration) and filling a vacuum left by mainstream parties [11] [2]. Critics and many journalists counter that the movement is often chaotic, internally divided and unproven at delivering services or coherent national policy, pointing to council chaos and policy backtracks [5] [6] [7].
Limitations and caveats: available sources for this briefing come from the supplied items and reflect UK-focused Reform UK reporting in 2025; they do not include every poll or internal party document, and they report a mix of data, commentary and investigative findings [1] [4] [5]. Where sources disagree — for example on how sustainable Reform’s coalition is — both views are presented above with their supporting citations [1] [8].