What were the key issues that influenced the 2024 presidential election outcome?
Executive summary
The 2024 presidential election was driven chiefly by voters’ economic anxieties—especially concerns about inflation and household costs—which multiple post-election analyses and polls identify as the single most important issue to voters [1] [2]. Other decisive themes included immigration, abortion and reproductive rights, the health care system, and concerns about democracy and the Supreme Court; different coalitions ranked these priorities very differently, with Trump voters emphasizing immigration and costs while Harris voters prioritized health care and Court appointments [3] [2].
1. Economy: the central voter motivator
Exit polling and later analyses show the economy dominated voters’ decision-making in 2024: Gallup reported that a record-high share—52%—of voters rated the economy as “extremely important” to their vote, higher than in any election since 2008 [1]. PRRI’s post-election work likewise finds Trump’s base saying arguments about rising costs of staple goods were a key motivating factor in their choice [2]. Brookings commentary and university experts framed widespread dissatisfaction with economic conditions—real or perceived—as a core engine of the campaign conversation [4] [5].
2. Immigration: escalation on the right, salience overall
Polling recorded a marked rise in immigration’s salience compared with prior cycles, driven especially by Republican voters: Pew found 61% of voters said immigration was very important to their 2024 vote and 82% of Trump supporters rated it very important—a substantial jump from 2020 [3]. University analysts and academic outlets also highlighted immigration as a persistent issue that shaped campaign messaging, state-level battlegrounds, and voter mobilization [5] [6].
3. Reproductive rights and the Supreme Court: mobilizers for Democrats
For many Democratic-leaning voters, abortion and Supreme Court appointments were among the most important considerations. Pew’s issue-tracking showed high percentages of Harris supporters naming health care (76%) and Supreme Court appointments (73%) as top issues, and abortion was also prominent [3]. Academic and think‑tank pieces placed reproductive rights alongside the Court’s composition as central to Democratic turnout and messaging [4] [5].
4. Democracy, electoral trust, and legal controversies
Concerns about the state of American democracy and candidate legal troubles were part of the backdrop. Reporting and summaries of the cycle noted prosecutions, civil suits, and litigation involving leading figures, and commentators flagged how questions of election legitimacy and misinformation affected both turnout and threat environments for election officials [7] [4]. Gallup and others noted a growing “election trust gap” that favored Republican political environment measures in 2024 [1]. Available sources do not provide a single agreed causal weight for these controversies relative to policy issues; instead they show these issues amplified partisan perceptions [7] [1].
5. Health care and social policy: different priorities across coalitions
Health care remained a top concern for many Democratic voters, with 76% of Harris supporters citing it as very important to their vote [3]. Think‑tank and university analyses stressed that health care and social policy differentiated the coalitions and influenced messaging around affordability and access [4] [5]. At the same time, business and policy groups anticipated that the election’s outcome would reshape health‑care regulation and budgeting in 2025 [8] [9].
6. Foreign policy and national security: matters of framing, not always decisive
Scholars and institutes underlined foreign policy—Ukraine, Israel, China—and national security as consequential, particularly in post-election planning and in elite debates, but polling placed them below the economy and immigration in raw voter prioritization [4] [5]. Brookings and university commentary emphasized that while foreign policy shaped elite narratives and donor priorities, domestic pocketbook issues tended to have greater pull on average voters [4] [5].
7. Race, gender and identity politics: layered influences
Academic special issues and research collections explored how race and gender shaped turnout and persuasion in 2024, showing complex dynamics—for example, challenges faced by female candidates and targeted outreach around abortion and religion—but these sources present scholarly analysis rather than a single electoral verdict [10] [11]. They depict identity politics as reinforcing turnout patterns and shaping where issues like abortion and criminal justice matters resonated most [10] [11].
8. What analysts say about policy consequences and the narrative battle
Post-election think‑tank and consultancy pieces forecast sweeping policy shifts depending on the result; EY and ML Strategies projected that the election would materially change regulatory and legislative priorities, especially with unified government outcomes [9] [8]. Brookings framed the election as setting the agenda on taxation, trade and domestic policy while also noting competing expert views on likely impacts [4].
Limitations and final note: the available sources emphasize that while the economy was the single strongest voter concern [1] [2], coalitions weighed other issues—immigration, reproductive rights, health care, and concerns about democracy—very differently [3] [2]. Sources do not provide a single causal model that quantifies exactly how much each issue shifted the outcome; rather, they point to a constellation of priorities that combined to produce the election result [4] [1].