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Fact check: Which states have the largest undocumented immigrant populations in 2025?
Executive Summary
Federal estimates through 2023—and independent analyses into 2024—consistently identify California and Texas as the states with the largest undocumented immigrant populations, followed by Florida, New Jersey, Illinois and New York in many counts; however, 2025-specific state rankings are not available in the provided sources, and projections differ because of methodology and recent flows [1] [2] [3]. Estimates range from about 12.2 million to 14 million nationwide in 2023–2024, and small shifts in migratory patterns or legal protections could change state rankings modestly by 2025 [1] [3].
1. What the major studies actually claim about state totals — and why they matter
Government-derived estimates and independent research agree that California and Texas lead the nation in undocumented residents, based on the size of immigrant communities and long-term settlement patterns [1] [2]. The Census-based report places the undocumented population at 12.2 million in 2023 and describes trends for the six states with the largest undocumented populations as of 2023, though it does not publish a 2025 state-by-state ranking [1]. Pew’s higher estimate — a record 14 million unauthorized immigrants in 2023 with preliminary upticks into 2024 before a reported decline in 2025 — highlights that methodology and the inclusion of people with temporary protections affect totals and implied state distributions [3].
2. How methods change the headline numbers and the map
Estimates diverge because researchers use different methodologies: the residual method compares survey counts of foreign-born people and legal resident totals to infer the unauthorized population, while other approaches incorporate administrative data or model adjustments for temporary-protected statuses [4]. The Social Security Bulletin explains the residual estimation method and traces how varying assumptions about undercount, emigration, and status shifts alter both national totals and state allocations [4]. These methodological choices directly affect whether a state looks larger or smaller in a given year, especially in states with growing populations or changing legal environments.
3. The recent trend story: growth, protection, then moderation
Across the reviewed work, the short-term narrative is consistent: a rise through 2023 and early 2024, driven by higher arrivals and more people living under temporary protections, followed by a reported moderation into 2025 in some estimates [1] [3]. The Census-based analysis documents annual growth trends from 2013–2023 and says the undocumented population increased to 12.2 million by 2023, offering a baseline for state shares [1]. Pew’s larger figure and its note of 2025 moderation point to migration dynamics and policy changes (e.g., expanded protections or enforcement shifts) that redistribute populations across states without fundamentally altering the fact that California and Texas remain the largest hosts [3].
4. Which states are repeatedly named among the top hosts — and what that implies
Multiple sources list California, Texas, Florida, New Jersey, Illinois and New York among the states with the largest undocumented populations in recent years, reflecting both population scale and immigrant networks [2] [1]. These states combine large total populations, major metropolitan job markets, and established immigrant communities that attract and retain newcomers. Absent 2025-specific official state tallies in the provided materials, the safest inference is that these states likely remained the largest hosts in 2025, though internal shifts (e.g., growth in Florida or declines in New York) could reorder lower-ranked positions [1] [2].
5. Where the data leave important gaps and what to watch next
None of the supplied items provide a definitive, 2025 state-by-state ranking; the 2023 Census-based study and the Social Security Bulletin lay methodological groundwork, while Pew offers alternative totals and notes 2024–2025 movement [1] [4] [3]. Key gaps include state-level 2025 estimates, treatment of people with temporary protections, and migration flows since late 2024. Upcoming releases to monitor include expanded American Community Survey tabulations, state administrative records, and updated Pew or think-tank analyses that reconcile methodological differences and release 2025 state distributions.
6. Reconciling the numbers: best current takeaway for 2025 inquiries
Given the evidence, the most defensible statement about 2025 is conditional: California and Texas almost certainly remain the first and second largest states by undocumented population, with Florida, New Jersey, Illinois and New York repeatedly appearing among the next largest hosts; precise 2025 ranks and totals vary by method and are not settled in the supplied sources [1] [2] [3]. Policymakers and reporters should cite both the Census-derived regional baselines and alternative higher estimates, note methodological differences, and avoid a single definitive 2025 state ranking until updated state-level estimates or administrative tallies are published [4] [3].