What are the polls saying about Trump

1. Poll averages and ranges — small differences, consistent downward direction

Multiple trackers and individual polls cluster Trump’s approval roughly between the mid-30s and low-40s, with outlets citing 37–42% favorable and disapproval commonly around 54–56% in January polling ^{[6] [1] [7]}. Aggregated measures show his net approval in recent averages has dropped into negative territory, with Nate Silver’s average moving from about -12.0 to -12.9 and other trackers reporting net ratings as low as -14 to -18 in specific polls ^{[4] [5] [8]}. RealClear and other compilers indicate small week-to-week fluctuations but an unmistakable downward trajectory heading into the 2026 midterms ^{[7] [9]}.

2. Immigration is the clearest weakness — record lows and public backlash

Trump’s signature issue, immigration, has become a pronounced liability in recent surveys: Reuters/Ipsos and other polls show only 39% approval of his handling of immigration and majorities saying the administration’s enforcement has gone “too far” ^{[3] [10]}. The New York Times/Siena and Economist/YouGov polling similarly found immigration approval falling sharply from earlier highs—dropping from near 49% last year to the high 30s in January—often in the wake of high-profile enforcement incidents that dominated headlines ^{[2] [10]}.

3. Policy and personal favorability — broad negatives, partisan splits persist

Broad public opinion on “nearly every aspect” of the administration’s first year back is negative in some national surveys, with a majority saying the president is focused on the wrong priorities and doing too little on cost-of-living issues, while partisan cleavages still shape responses ^{[11] [12]}. Think-tank and media analyses note declining domestic popularity across key challenges, but also stress that views remain polarized and that economic or foreign-policy shifts could still move public sentiment ^[13].

4. Pollster variation and political messaging — beware the noise

Different pollsters report different point estimates—some show approval in the mid-30s, others near 44%—and partisan outlets amplify favorable or unfavorable snapshots; Trump himself has publicly denounced particular polls even when they align with the broader pattern ^{[2] [5] [1]}. Aggregators help reduce single-poll noise, which is important because sampling methods (adults vs. likely voters), timing around major incidents, and question wording all produce variation that can be exploited by political actors eager to claim either momentum or crisis ^{[9] [4]}.

5. What it means for 2026 midterms — warning signs but not fate

Analysts caution that sustained negatives in approval and especially in key suburban and working-class demographics are warning signs for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms, even as map dynamics and district-level incumbencies complicate simple national-to-local extrapolation ^{[13] [14]}. Polling shows a competitive environment where shifts in the economy, crises, or effective messaging could alter outcomes; nonetheless, the recent consistency of downward numbers has prompted alarm among some Republican-aligned outlets and optimism among Democratic strategists ^{[11] [5]}.

6. Open questions and potential biases in coverage

Current reporting ties dips in immigration approval to federal enforcement incidents and media coverage of those events, which suggests both substantive policy fallout and agenda-driven amplification by outlets that prioritize those stories; conversely, some pro-Trump media portray numeric declines as partisan attacks or methodology failures ^{[10] [2] [5]}. The available sources do not settle whether these polls will translate to election outcomes; they do, however, consistently register deteriorating public sentiment on immigration and an overall negative net approval in January 2026 ^{[3] [8]}.