Who are the leading candidates in the December 2 2025 special election?

1. A familiar two-party matchup, plus four independents — why the ballot looks crowded and consequential

The special election is dominated by the head-to-head dynamic between Aftyn Behn (D) and Matt Van Epps (R), which national and local previews identify as the marquee contest because both represent major-party bids to hold or flip the seat. Ballotpedia and aggregated election coverage list the four additional names — Teresa Christie, Bobby Dodge, Robert James Sutherby, and Jonathan Thorp — as independent candidates who could siphon votes, complicating turnout math in a December special election when turnout tends to be lower ^[1]. The presence of multiple independents raises vote-splitting considerations and places a premium on mobilizing core bases; campaign strategists often caution that third-party or independent entries in low-turnout special elections can magnify the effect of small, organized voting blocs, which could matter in a district shaped by recent partisan shifts after Representative Mark Green’s resignation ^[3].

2. Who Aftyn Behn is and what her campaign emphasizes

Aftyn Behn runs as the Democratic standard-bearer with a background framed in activism and public-service roles; coverage identifies her as the Democratic nominee seeking to consolidate the party’s base and appeal to suburban and independent voters in the district. Her campaign messaging, as summarized in election previews, emphasizes grassroots organizing and policy contrasts with her Republican opponent, aiming to capitalize on local issues where Democrats see an opening ^[1]. Observers note that Behn’s viability depends on turnout among Democratic-leaning constituencies in a midwinter special; mobilization of volunteers, targeted mail and digital outreach, and framing November’s broader political context into a localized message will be crucial in a low-attention election environment where small margins decide outcomes ^[1].

3. Who Matt Van Epps is and the conservative coalition behind him

Matt Van Epps emerges as the Republican frontrunner in reporting, campaigning on conservative leadership credentials and messaging that ties into national Republican themes; his campaign benefits from endorsements and organizational support that align him with the GOP’s local apparatus. Coverage highlights that Republican strategists view this seat as a priority to retain, and Van Epps’s candidacy is framed as a continuation of conservative representation following Mark Green’s resignation ^{[1] [3]}. With the district’s recent electoral history leaning Republican, Van Epps’s ability to hold the GOP base together while minimizing independent defections will determine whether the party sustains its advantage; endorsements and get-out-the-vote operations are particularly emphasized by analysts as determinative in a December special ^[1].

4. The independent names matter — potential kingmakers or marginal players?

The four independents listed on ballots — Teresa Christie, Bobby Dodge, Robert James Sutherby, and Jonathan Thorp — are identified by election trackers as participants who could influence vote distribution, though major outlets categorize them as longshot contenders relative to the party nominees. Independents in special elections occasionally act as spoilers by attracting niche constituencies or protest votes, but historical patterns and pre-election coverage suggest they are unlikely to win absent an extraordinary collapse by both major parties ^[1]. Still, in a low-turnout December contest, even modest independent shares can change outcome dynamics; campaign teams on both sides must therefore calculate where independents draw support and whether targeted outreach can persuade those voters or blunt their impact ^[1].

5. Context: why this special election matters beyond the district

This special election is notable because it follows Representative Mark Green’s resignation and takes place during a broader political calendar that includes recent general-election aftershocks and national partisan positioning. National and state political observers view December specials as testing grounds for turnout strategies and message resonance ahead of future cycles; both parties treat the contest as a metric of local sentiment and organizational strength ^{[3] [2]}. Coverage compiled in election trackers positions Behn and Van Epps as the main narrative drivers, with the independents as variables; the race’s outcome will be read for implications on party momentum, candidate recruitment, and tactical lessons for subsequent 2026 campaigns ^[1].

Sources: Ballotpedia and election summaries and district notes listing candidates and context ^{[1] [3] [2]}.