Fact check: Political violence on the left

1. Extracting the central claims that sparked the debate

The debate rests on two competing claims: that left-wing attacks have risen and for the first time in decades surpassed far-right attacks in 2025, and that despite any recent rise, right-wing extremist violence remains the dominant and deadliest force in U.S. domestic terrorism. Multiple reports repeat the CSIS finding that left-wing incidents increased since 2016 and that 2025 marks a notable reversal in attack counts ^[1]. At the same time, analytic pieces quantify right-wing attacks as responsible for roughly 75–80% of domestic terrorism deaths since 2001, placing left-wing incidents at a significantly lower share of fatalities ^[2].

2. What the CSIS study actually reports and why it matters

CSIS’s study documents a rise in left-wing plots and attacks since 2016, and it identifies 2025 as the first year in more than thirty years when recorded left-wing incidents outnumbered violent far-right incidents, according to summaries of the report ^[1]. The study’s framing underscores a shift in incident counts rather than a claim that left-wing violence matches historical levels of right-wing or jihadist terrorism. The key statistical takeaway is a change in the balance of recorded attacks, not parity in lethality, which the study and coverage make clear ^[1].

3. Historical context: why right-wing violence still looms larger

Independent analyses emphasize that right-wing extremist violence has been both more frequent and more lethal over the last two decades, accounting for the bulk of domestic terrorism fatalities since 2001 and often producing higher-casualty events, even if annual incident counts vary ^[2]. Those analyses place the CSIS finding into broader temporal context: a short-term uptick in left-wing incidents does not erase a long-term pattern in which right-wing actors caused a disproportionate share of deaths. Death tolls and historical frequency remain critical metrics for assessing overall threat.

4. Media and expert reactions: alarm, nuance, and calls for clarity

Coverage across outlets echoes the study’s headline while urging nuance; some pieces describe 2025 as potentially the left’s most violent year in decades but stress that leaders should condemn all extremism and address polarization ^[3]. Radio interviews with CSIS experts offered additional context on methodology and drivers of the increase ^[4]. Reporting trends show both alarm at the rising left-wing incidents and caution about overreading a single-year shift, with journalists and experts asking for more granular data on motives, targets, and outcomes ^{[3] [4]}.

5. What important context and limitations are often omitted

Several analyses and summaries note but do not fully explore limitations: changes in reporting practices, law enforcement attention, definitional boundaries between activism and terrorism, and differences between incident counts and lethality can all shape conclusions ^{[1] [2]}. The CSIS finding focuses on counts of attacks and plots, which can rise while overall fatality risk remains concentrated in different actor categories. Understanding whether incidents are coordinated militant campaigns or isolated acts of violence matters greatly for policy and public perception.

6. How multiple viewpoints change threat assessment and policy choices

If left-wing incidents are indeed increasing, policymakers must weigh that trend alongside the fact that right-wing actors have historically produced the deadliest attacks; responses should be proportionate to both current trends and long-term lethality data ^{[1] [2]}. Analysts recommend improved data transparency, cross-agency sharing, and targeted interventions that address radicalization pathways across the ideological spectrum. A balanced threat strategy requires distinguishing short-term shifts in incident counts from enduring patterns in fatalities and operational capacity.

7. Bottom line: what the evidence supports and what remains unsettled

The evidence supports two simultaneous facts: left-wing attacks in the United States have risen enough that 2025 may be the first year in decades where their counted incidents outnumber violent far-right attacks, and right-wing extremist violence still accounts for most domestic terrorism deaths since 2001 ^{[1] [2]}. Remaining uncertainties include how durable the left-wing uptick will be, how definitions and reporting practices influenced the counts, and whether the trend translates into greater lethality or organizational capacity; resolving those questions requires more data and sustained, transparent analysis ^{[1] [2]}.