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Fact check: Left-wing violence has overtaken Right-wing violence over the last years in the US
Executive Summary
Recent analyses present conflicting claims about whether left-wing violence has overtaken right-wing violence in the United States: several 2025 reports indicate a rise in left-wing attacks that led some researchers to say left-wing incidents outnumbered right-wing incidents in 2025, while longer-term and fatality-focused datasets continue to show right-wing violence as more frequent and deadlier over the past two decades. Short-term incident counts for 2025 point to a reversal in numerical incident dominance, but multi-year lethality and historical trends still favor the right as the primary source of domestic terrorism deaths [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. Why 2025 Looks Different: A Surge in Left-Wing Incidents That Changed the Yearly Count
Several 2025 studies document an uptick in left-wing political violence that, in that calendar year, produced more recorded left-wing attacks than right-wing attacks—an outcome described as the first such instance in over three decades. These findings focus on incident counts within a single year and emphasize numerical incidence rather than lethality, noting specific episodes such as the Texas ICE shooting as emblematic of the surge [1] [2] [5]. The methodological emphasis on one-year totals explains how year-to-year reversals can occur without altering longer-term patterns.
2. The Broader Record: Right-Wing Violence Still Dominates Fatalities and Long-Term Trends
Longitudinal datasets and expert syntheses show that right-wing extremist violence accounts for the majority of domestic terrorism fatalities since 2001, frequently cited at roughly 75–80 percent of deaths across multiple data sources and analyses. These findings draw on aggregated data that prioritize fatalities and historical continuity, not single-year incident counts, and they underpin arguments that despite a 2025 uptick in left-wing incidents, the right remains the greater long-term lethality risk [3] [4] [6].
3. Methodology Matters: Incidents vs. Deaths, Classification, and Timeframes
Disagreement stems largely from how researchers define and count "political violence"—whether they tally each attack incident, code ideological motivation conservatively or liberally, or weight events by lethality. Some datasets that flagged a left-wing numerical lead in 2025 counted a broader set of lower-casualty actions, while fatality-centered databases continued to show right-wing dominance. Differences in labeling actors as “left-wing” or “right-wing” and in including non-lethal sabotage, threats, or property destruction further shift outcomes [1] [2] [7].
4. The Role of High-Profile Events and Media Frames in Perception
High-profile shootings and targeted attacks—such as incidents involving ICE agents—are amplified in media and political narratives, shaping perceptions of which side is “worse” even when statistical context tempers the claim. Coverage that links isolated incidents to broader movements risks conflating rhetorical escalation with organizationally driven terror campaigns. Some outlets and commentators emphasize the left’s rising incidents; others stress accumulated right-wing lethality, revealing divergent framing choices that reflect editorial or partisan priorities [5] [6].
5. What Experts Warn About Interpreting Short-Term Reversals
Scholars caution against treating a single-year reversal as a durable realignment: one-year incident edges can be volatile, influenced by clustering of episodes or shifts in reporting and classification practices. Longitudinal expert reviews maintain that political violence in the U.S. “still comes overwhelmingly from the right” when multiple years and fatality metrics are considered, underscoring that 2025’s numerical spike requires careful contextualization before declaring a sustained trend change [7] [3].
6. Implications for Policy and Public Discourse: Where Attention Should Go
Policymakers and the public should respond to both rising incident rates and enduring lethality patterns: short-term surges merit immediate law enforcement and prevention attention, while long-term fatality trends demand sustained counterterrorism and deradicalization strategies. Accurate public messaging requires clarifying whether statements refer to incident counts, deaths, or multi-year trends, and acknowledging that shifts in one metric do not automatically overturn other established patterns [1] [4] [6].
Conclusion: The evidentiary picture is mixed—2025 saw a documented numerical rise in left-wing incidents that briefly outnumbered right-wing incidents, but aggregated, multi-year data continue to show right-wing violence as the more lethal and historically dominant threat. Readers should note that different analytical choices—timeframe, outcome measure, and classification—produce different but internally consistent findings [1] [4] [7].