What is the legislative timeline and likelihood of passage for Bill C-2 in the House of Commons and Senate?
Executive summary
Bill C-2 (the “Strong Borders Act”) was introduced in June 2025 and completed first reading in the House of Commons on June 3, 2025 (introductory and explanatory materials and Charter Statement tabled mid‑June) [1] [2]. As of autumn 2025 reporting, the bill had reached and been debated at second reading in the House, with supporters in the governing caucus and Conservative allies but sustained opposition from rights and civil‑society groups; the government also moved elements of C-2 into a streamlined follow‑up bill C-12 in October 2025, signaling an intent to accelerate or repackage parts of the package [3] [4].
1. What C-2 is and where it started on the floor
The bill is omnibus: it proposes broad changes to the Customs Act, Criminal Code, immigration statutes and information‑sharing powers aimed at strengthening border security and anti‑organised‑crime measures. It was tabled in early June 2025 and passed first reading in the House on June 3, 2025; the government also prepared a Charter Statement and explanatory materials in mid‑June 2025 [1] [2] [5].
2. The formal legislative timeline so far
Parliamentary records show C-2’s first reading documentation and the formal bill text in June 2025 [6]. Reporting through September 2025 indicates the bill had reached second reading in the House with active debates as recently as mid‑September [3]. In October 2025 the government introduced Bill C-12, described by Public Safety as drawing on elements of C-2 and intended to “enable Parliament to pass these priorities” while allowing more time to assess other measures — an explicit sign the government was either supplementing or streamlining C-2’s agenda [4] [7].
3. Committee, Senate and Royal Assent mechanics that determine pace
Under Canadian procedure, a government bill must clear second reading, committee study, report stage and third reading in the House, then repeat the same stages in the Senate before Royal Assent can be granted; the Senate’s rulebook confirms a bill must be adopted in the same form in both chambers to become law [8]. OpenParliament and LEGISinfo pages document the ordinary path C-2 must follow and the ministerial briefings prepared for it [9] [2].
4. Indicators that affect likelihood of passage in the House
Two practical indicators shape the House outlook: governing party control of the agenda and cross‑bench support. Sources show the government publicly pitched C-2 as filling enforcement gaps and had the cooperation of Conservatives on at least some border‑security priorities, increasing the chance the House will pass core provisions that the government prioritizes [1] [3]. At the same time, more than 300 organizations publicly urged withdrawal of the bill’s immigration measures according to reporting, and civil‑liberty groups (e.g., Citizen Lab, Privacy Commissioner referenced in briefs) flagged major privacy and Charter concerns—political resistance that can force amendments or repackaging, which the government appears to have already begun via C-12 [10] [3] [4].
5. Senate prospects and procedural hurdles
The Senate’s role is to review, amend, or delay legislation; a bill can be slowed in committee or by senators’ requests for more study. Current materials document only that Senate procedure requires adoption in the same form and that the 45th Parliament has processed other government bills to Royal Assent, but none of the sources report Senate consideration or votes on C-2 specifically [8]. Available sources do not mention any Senate hearings, amendments, or votes on C-2 to date.
6. The government’s tactical pivot: C-12 and what it signals
Public Safety’s October 2025 release and Government statements make clear C-12 draws on C-2 elements and was introduced to “enable Parliament to pass these priorities” while giving time to evaluate other measures, indicating the executive is prepared to repackage, fast‑track, or separate contentious measures to secure passage [4] [7]. That tactical pivot increases short‑term chances for at least parts of the agenda to become law quickly, but it also signals that some C-2 elements face substantial pushback that blocked a straight passage path [4].
7. Key uncertainties and implicit political drivers
Sources show clear tensions: stated government priorities (targeting fentanyl flows, organized crime, border integrity) oppose civil‑society and privacy concerns about expanded police and information‑sharing powers [5] [10]. The government’s willingness to split and reintroduce measures (C-12) implies pragmatic calculation: pass the least controversial, rework or delay the rest. Available sources do not mention exact vote tallies, a Senate timeline, or specific amendment texts that would definitively predict final outcomes [8] [6].
8. Bottom line — timeline and probability (based on available public reporting)
Short term: components of C-2 were advanced in the House through first reading and second‑reading debate and have been repackaged into C-12 to accelerate passage of priority elements [1] [3] [4]. Medium term: passage in the House is likely for portions the government prioritizes and can secure with Conservative support; more controversial immigration and data‑sharing provisions face sustained opposition and may be amended, delayed, or shifted into other bills [3] [10]. Long term: Senate consideration and final fate are not reported in available sources, leaving ultimate enactment uncertain [8].