Which president had the lowest Gallup approval average and what factors caused the low rating?
Executive summary
Gallup records show Donald Trump holds the lowest presidential average in Gallup’s history, with his term average below Joe Biden’s 42.2% and prior lows such as Jimmy Carter’s 45.5% (Gallup reporting on Biden and historical data) [1] [2]. Recent Gallup and Reuters/Ipsos polling also report Trump’s approval slipping into the mid‑30s to high‑30s in late 2025, driven by concerns about the cost of living, independent voters’ defections and controversy over releases tied to Jeffrey Epstein files [3] [4].
1. Who Gallup’s numbers say is lowest — and the headline fact
Gallup’s historical tracking and summary pages identify Donald Trump as the lowest‑averaging president in Gallup’s records, with his term average below that of Joe Biden (whose term average Gallup gives as 42.2%) and well under earlier low post‑World War II averages like Jimmy Carter’s 45.5% [1] [2]. Gallup’s ongoing job approval center and individual president pages document these comparative averages [5] [6].
2. Recent polls — the short‑term lows in late 2025
In late November 2025 Gallup reported a 36% approval for Trump — the lowest point of his second term — while Reuters/Ipsos recorded a roughly comparable low‑to‑high‑30s approval (36–38%) around the same period [3] [4]. Political news outlets summarized the Gallup drop as a five‑point fall that left disapproval near 60% [3] [7].
3. Drivers cited in the reporting: economy, independents, and scandals
Reporting ties the late‑2025 declines to multiple factors. Reuters/Ipsos highlighted voter unhappiness about the high cost of living and fallout from moves around files connected to Jeffrey Epstein as contributors to the low rating [4]. Gallup’s reporting emphasized a steep decline among independents — a traditional swing group — as a proximate cause of the new low point [3].
4. How party polarization shapes these averages
Gallup’s analysis of recent presidencies shows approval is increasingly polarized by party; Biden’s low term average, for instance, reflected “extreme political party differences” [1]. Gallup’s coverage of Trump likewise notes that changes among Republicans and independents — not Democrats — typically move his monthly numbers, underscoring that a shrinking cross‑party or independent coalition will push an average downward [3] [8].
5. Comparisons to historical lows and methodological notes
Historical Gallup reporting places Jimmy Carter (45.5%) and Harry Truman among the lower post‑WWII averages, but Gallup’s updates make clear Trump’s average now sits below those earlier marks [2] [5]. Gallup’s approval center explains differences in how averages are constructed — weekly tracking, multiday polls and changes in methodology over time — so direct comparisons across eras require caution [5].
6. Alternative measures and aggregations
Other poll aggregators and outlets provide different snapshots: RealClear and Nate Silver–derived averages compile many polls and can produce higher or lower short‑term estimates than a single pollster; for example, RealClear’s composite ranges for Trump in 2025 ran notably higher at times than Gallup’s single‑poll reads [9] [10]. The New York Times and Silver Bulletin note that polling averages smooth out differences among pollsters and methods, which matters when one pollster — Gallup or Reuters/Ipsos — shows a pronounced dip [11] [10].
7. What the sources do not resolve
Available sources do not mention definitive causal attribution beyond the correlations described — for example, they report that cost‑of‑living concerns and Epstein file controversy coincided with lower approval but do not establish which single factor caused the drop [4] [3]. Detailed demographic decompositions beyond “independents” slipping are not provided in the supplied excerpts [3].
8. Bottom line for readers
Gallup’s historical and contemporary reporting names Donald Trump as the lowest‑averaging president in Gallup’s records, with late‑2025 Gallup and Reuters/Ipsos polls showing approval in the mid‑ to high‑30s; the drop is linked in coverage to economic concerns, independent voter defections and controversy over Epstein‑related materials, while poll aggregates may show different short‑term levels depending on methods [1] [3] [4] [10].