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Which modern US presidents rank lowest in historian polls?
Executive Summary
Historic ranking polls of U.S. presidents differ by methodology and timing, but recent expert surveys converge on a clear pattern: Donald Trump and several late‑20th/early‑21st century presidents appear near the bottom of modern-era lists, while rankings for others like George W. Bush, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford, and George H.W. Bush vary by poll and metric. Major 2017–2024 surveys cited here—C-SPAN polls, Siena Research Institute, and the Presidential Greatness Project—report different sample sizes, scoring scales, and emphases (leadership, moral authority, administrative skill), producing discrepant placements that reflect methodology and the political moment [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6].
1. Why recent polls often put Trump at the very bottom — and what that means
Multiple recent expert surveys list Donald Trump as the lowest‑ranked U.S. president, citing poor scores on leadership, moral authority, and administrative skills; the Presidential Greatness Project gave Trump a rating near 10.9 in 2024, and C‑SPAN and Siena surveys placed him at or near the bottom in their expert tallies [4] [5] [6]. These studies used different samples—142 to 154 historians or presidential specialists—and varied scoring systems (0–100 scales, numerical ratings), but all measured dimensions beyond popularity, including governance and historical significance. The uniformity across independent instruments suggests a substantive consensus among many scholars on Trump's presidential shortcomings as of early 2024, though the intensity and specific reasons differ by survey question and expert pool [2] [4] [6].
2. George W. Bush, Nixon and other modern figures: disagreement, not unanimity
Earlier polls and multi‑year compilations place George W. Bush, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford, and George H.W. Bush at varying low-to-mid positions depending on survey year and sample. A 2017 C‑SPAN survey of 91 historians ranked Bush 33rd and Nixon 28th, with Carter, Ford, and George H.W. Bush clustered in the mid‑20s to 20th place range, while Barack Obama scored much higher in that iteration [1]. These differences illustrate that “modern” low rankings are not uniform: some polls emphasize policy failures or scandal (helping push Nixon down historically), while others factor in post‑presidential reputational rehabilitation (which raised Carter and George H.W. Bush in later assessments). Methodological choices—sample size, recency bias, and weighting of scandal versus governance—drive substantive shifts [1].
3. Methodology matters: scales, samples and timing shift outcomes
Surveys cited here used distinct approaches: C‑SPAN ran surveys with 91 to 154 historians across different years, Siena’s expert poll compiled a separate panel, and the Presidential Greatness Project produced numeric ratings with a distinct rubric [1] [2] [3] [4] [6]. Scale differences—0–100 vs. numeric rankings—and question framing—greatness, moral authority, administrative skill—produce divergent placements even for the same president. Timing matters too: surveys conducted during or soon after a presidency capture contemporaneous judgments and polarization, while multi‑decadal compilations can show reputational changes as historical distance accumulates. The variance between 2017 and 2024 polls underscores how scholar consensus evolves with new information, political developments, and scholarly turnover [1] [3] [5].
4. Where consensus exists and where historians disagree
Consensus exists that some recent presidents are judged poorly by many experts—Trump is the clearest example—while other modern presidents occupy more ambiguous positions. Historians repeatedly rank figures like James Buchanan, Andrew Johnson, Warren Harding, and Franklin Pierce among the worst overall in U.S. history; modern presidents often sit higher than those long‑reviled 19th‑century leaders, but within the modern cohort rankings vary [4] [6]. Disagreement centers on how to weigh scandal versus policy outcomes, and whether post‑presidential conduct should alter historical stature. Polls that emphasize administrative competence or moral authority will systematically reorder the bottom tier versus polls that privilege lasting policy achievements [2] [4].
5. Bottom line: a qualified list of modern low‑rankers and why it’s not final
Putting the findings together, the modern U.S. presidents most frequently appearing near the bottom of historian polls in recent years are Donald Trump, George W. Bush, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford, and George H.W. Bush, with Trump uniquely consistently ranked lowest in 2024 surveys cited here [4] [5] [1] [3] [6]. This conclusion is qualified: different expert pools, question framings, and the passage of time change placements, and historians continue to debate weighting of moral authority, administrative skill, and long‑term consequences. Readers should treat these rankings as scholarly snapshots shaped by methodology and moment, not immutable verdicts [1] [5] [6].