Fact check: Which countries in the Middle East are believed to have nuclear weapons?

1. Summary of the results

Based on the analyses provided, the question about which Middle East countries are believed to have nuclear weapons reveals a complex and evolving situation as of June 22, 2025:

Israel is strongly implied to possess nuclear weapons, as evidenced by its demonstrated capability to conduct sophisticated strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities ^{[1] [2]}. The sources suggest Israel has the military capacity to destroy highly sensitive targets like Iran's uranium enrichment facilities, indicating advanced nuclear-related military capabilities.

Iran's nuclear status remains disputed and unclear. While some sources suggest Iran is "believed to have nuclear weapons" ^[3], the evidence is contradictory. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi has explicitly rejected claims that Tehran was on the verge of making atomic bombs ^[3], though the UN nuclear watchdog has expressed concerns about Iran's decision to enrich uranium at up to 60 percent purity. Iran consistently maintains its nuclear program is for civilian purposes ^[3].

The United States, while not a Middle Eastern country, has demonstrated its nuclear capabilities through its involvement in striking Iranian nuclear sites alongside Israel ^[1].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The analyses reveal several critical pieces of missing context:

• Recent military developments: The sources document that as of June 22, 2025, the US has conducted airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities including Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow ^{[1] [4]}, with President Trump claiming the US has "obliterated" Iran's nuclear sites ^[1].
• International oversight perspective: The IAEA's official position contradicts assumptions about Iran's weapons capability, with IAEA chief Rafael Grossi rejecting claims about Iran's imminent bomb-making capacity ^[3].
• Geopolitical implications: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that Trump's decision to target Iran's nuclear facilities will "change history" and prevent "the world's most dangerous regime" from obtaining "the world's most dangerous weapons" ^[5].
• Regional response: The strikes have prompted Hamas and the Houthis to vow retaliation ^[2], indicating broader regional implications beyond the immediate nuclear question.

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original question, while seemingly neutral, lacks important temporal context. The question asks which countries "are believed" to have nuclear weapons, but the analyses reveal this is a rapidly changing situation with major military actions occurring on the very date of the query (June 22, 2025).

The framing may inadvertently promote speculation rather than factual assessment, particularly regarding Iran, where official international oversight bodies like the IAEA dispute weapons possession claims ^[3]. The question also doesn't account for the distinction between nuclear weapons capability, nuclear weapons programs, and actual weapons possession - a crucial differentiation highlighted by the ongoing military actions against Iran's nuclear infrastructure ^{[4] [1]}.