How did monthly border crossing numbers under Trump compare to Biden through November 2025?
Executive summary
Monthly border encounters fell sharply after President Trump took office in January 2025: DHS and multiple outlets report monthly southwest-border apprehensions dropped to the single- or low‑thousands per month in Trump’s first eight months versus much higher monthly averages under President Biden (CBP monthly averages around 155,485 encounters cited by DHS and past fiscal peaks far higher under Biden) [1] [2] [3]. Reporting and government statements agree there was a large decline, but analysts and fact‑checkers note the timing overlaps preexisting declines and changes in policy that began under Biden [4] [5].
1. What the headline numbers say: a steep drop in monthly encounters
DHS and White House releases emphasize a dramatic fall: the administration reported that Border Patrol nationwide apprehensions averaged under 10,000 per month after Trump took office, and the department’s November release compared roughly 106,134 total enforcement encounters through October 2025 to a Biden-era monthly average it lists as about 155,485 encounters [1] [2]. Major press outlets summarizing DHS data said fiscal‑year 2025 saw roughly 237,000–238,000 southwest border apprehensions overall, with the bulk occurring during Biden’s final months and much lower monthly counts during Trump’s first eight months [3] [6].
2. How the administrations’ monthly patterns differ
Under Biden, CBP encountered very large monthly volumes at times—2023 saw record annual encounters with monthly spikes—whereas in 2025 the counts per month reported under Trump were described as “fewer than 9,000 apprehensions each month” in many sectors [7] [2]. DHS framed the Trump-era months as historic lows, including statements that October 2025 produced the lowest October crossings in CBP history [1].
3. Why context matters: policies and timing that affect month‑to‑month comparisons
Independent reporting and fact‑checks caution against simple before/after comparisons over short windows. PBS noted the steep December 2024–January 2025 drop began before many new Trump implementations and that Biden administration policy changes in mid‑2024 (including restrictions on asylum) had already lowered encounters [4] [5]. In other words, month‑to‑month differences reflect a mix of policy shifts, operational changes, and natural ebb‑and‑flow in migration, not only the occupant of the White House [4].
4. Competing narratives: government claims vs. outside scrutiny
The White House and DHS present the decline as a direct and immediate result of Trump’s crackdown, highlighting “historic” or “lowest‑in‑50‑years” language and emphasizing reductions in releases and gotaways [1] [8] [2]. Independent outlets and fact‑checkers accept that encounters dropped but warn the administration’s comparisons sometimes cherry‑pick short intervals (e.g., last seven days under Biden vs. first seven under Trump) and that longer trends and prior policy moves also contributed [4] [7].
5. Numbers that often get cited and their limits
Advocacy groups and the administration have circulated large, round figures—e.g., “11 million encounters under Biden’s four years” or “lowest levels in 50+ years”—but these claims often rely on aggregations or selective timeframes; independent analyses show 2023 was an unusually high year under Biden and that FY2025 totals were much lower [9] [7] [3]. MigrationPolicy and other analysts also note that CBP “encounters” include repeat encounters and do not equal net entries or long‑term stays, and “gotaways” and undetected crossings complicate simple monthly tallies [5] [10].
6. What we do and don’t know from available sources
Available sources consistently report a substantial fall in monthly encounters after Jan 2025 and present specific monthly averages or totals for both administrations [1] [2] [3]. What the provided reporting does not settle is the precise causal share attributable solely to Trump policies versus policies enacted earlier, seasonal or regional factors, or shifts in migration routes; PBS explicitly cautions we need longer windows to fully evaluate causation [4]. Detailed, independent time‑series breakdowns of every month through November 2025 that control for these factors are not provided in the current documents (not found in current reporting).
7. Bottom line for readers
Monthly border crossing counts were much lower in the months after Trump’s January 2025 inauguration than many months under Biden, and DHS/White House messaging frames this as a policy success [1] [8]. Journalistic and analytical sources concur the decline is real but emphasize that timing, earlier Biden policy shifts, and methodological limits in “encounter” data complicate a straight causal claim that all of the reduction was caused by Trump’s actions [4] [5]. Readers should treat short‑term, before/after comparisons skeptically and look for multi‑month, independently analyzed trends to judge long‑term effects [4].