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How did monthly U.S.-Mexico border encounters change from Jan 2021 to Nov 2025?
Executive summary
Monthly U.S.–Mexico border encounters jumped sharply after January 2021, peaking in late 2023 and then falling to near-historic lows by 2025; CBP reports more than 1.6 million encounters in FY2021 and a monthly record of roughly 250,000 in December 2023, while fiscal‑year and monthly statistics in 2024–2025 show steep declines, with some months in early 2025 reaching single‑digit thousands by CBP reporting [1] [2] [3]. Coverage emphasizes that definitions and counting rules (Title 8, Title 42, OFO vs. USBP) changed in 2020–2023 and Mexican enforcement and policy shifts contributed to the 2024–2025 drop [3] [4].
1. The dramatic rise after Jan 2021 — volume and timing
Encounters rose quickly after January 2021: U.S. Border Patrol reported more than 1.6 million southwest border encounters in fiscal 2021, making that fiscal year one of the highest on record and marking the start of a multi‑year surge that continued through 2022–2023 [1]. Aggregated tallies cited in reporting put total encounters during the Biden administration in the millions — Wikipedia summarizes “over 7.2 million migrants encountered between January 2021 and January 2024,” reflecting sustained high monthly counts through 2023 [2].
2. Peak monthly spikes and the December 2023 high‑water mark
Multiple sources identify an extreme monthly high point around late 2023: CBP data referenced in reporting indicate a monthly record of roughly 250,000 encounters in December 2023, which matches accounts that several months in 2023 saw very large monthly totals compared with earlier years [2]. Analysts and NGOs used these monthly peaks to highlight processing strains and policy debates in Washington [1].
3. 2024–2025: sharp decline and near‑historic lows
From late 2023 into 2024 and 2025 the trend reversed: reporting notes a substantial fall in encounters — for example, encounters declined by about 53% between December 2023 and May 2024 in one analysis, and Mexican authorities registered more internal encounters than the U.S. Border Patrol each month between May 2024 and March 2025, underlining changed migration flows and enforcement patterns [4]. By early 2025 several outlets reported some of the lowest monthly totals in recent history — Reuters and others described migrant arrests approaching record lows in February 2025 [5], and U.S. government statements and other reporting cited months in 2025 with encounters down to the single‑digit thousands in particular months [6] [7].
4. Why the numbers shifted: policy, counting changes, and Mexican enforcement
Interpreting month‑to‑month changes requires attention to policy and definitions: CBP’s encounter statistics after March FY2020 combine Title 8 apprehensions, Office of Field Operations (OFO) inadmissibles, and Title 42 expulsions, so shifts in federal policy (e.g., the end of Title 42 in May 2023 or later policy changes) affect counts and comparability across months and fiscal years [3] [8]. Analysts highlight that stepped‑up Mexican enforcement and bilateral arrangements in 2024–2025 materially reduced irregular arrivals at the U.S. border and even produced months where Mexican authorities recorded more encounters than U.S. Border Patrol [4].
5. Conflicting claims and disputed “lowest month” framing
Political actors have made competing claims about whether early‑2025 months were “the lowest in recorded history.” The Department of Homeland Security and White House‑aligned communications touted single‑month lows in 2025 (for example, claiming March 2025 had fewer than 7,200 encounters) [6], while some analysts and reporters warned that such “lowest ever” assertions can be misleading because CBP recordkeeping conventions changed over decades and historical records extend beyond CBP’s electronic monthly series [9]. Reuters and Newsweek note the need to compare like‑for‑like series and to account for policy and reporting discontinuities [5] [9].
6. What the numbers do — and do not — show
The readily available CBP dashboards provide month‑by‑month counts and component breakdowns (USBP sectors, OFO) and are the primary source for most reporting; they document the post‑2020 rise and the 2024–2025 fall in encounters [8] [3]. However, available sources do not mention granular month‑by‑month figures for every month from Jan 2021 to Nov 2025 in this set of materials, so readers should consult CBP’s “Southwest Land Border Encounters” and “Nationwide Encounters” pages for precise monthly tables and sector breakdowns if they need exact month‑level series [3] [8].
7. Bottom line and how to follow updates
Monthly encounters rose sharply after Jan 2021, hitting multi‑year and monthly highs through 2023, then fell substantially through 2024–2025 amid U.S. policy changes and increased Mexican enforcement; the official CBP dashboards remain the authoritative monthly source, but analysts caution that changing definitions and bilateral measures complicate simple “highest/lowest” headlines [1] [4] [3]. For precise month‑by‑month counts from Jan 2021 through Nov 2025 consult CBP’s data portals [8].